115 Hidden Crst · Madison, MS 39110

$225,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1991 4,791 sqft lot Est $193k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous Cottage! 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. THIS PROPERTY QUALIFIES FOR 100% FINANCING THROUGH USDA RURAL HOUSING. Own this 3-bedroom home for less than rent! This cute, move-in ready home is tucked away in Haley Creek Subdivision which is in the popular Germantown school zone. Inside you'll find wood laminate flooring, fireplace, roomy bedrooms, walk in closets, and so much more! Fully fenced backyard. This really is a great find! Call to schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Brand-new roof
• Germantown area

Tags

• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• BRAND-NEW AC UNIT
• HOT WATER TANK
• HALEY CREEK SUBDIVISION
• GERMANTOWN AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.78%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,584
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Hidden Crst	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,055 (-1%)	14mo	$185,000	$175	74
115 Haley Creek Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+13%)	14mo	$209,900	$175	56
121 Summit Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,130 (+6%)	12mo	$205,000	$181	49
101 Haley Creek Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (-15%)	16mo	$172,000	$190	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-8,086
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $26,735
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $576/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $588	-5% $525	+0% $461	+5% $397	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $283	-5% $372	+0% $461	+5% $550	+10% $639
Rate	-1.0pp $574	-0.5pp $518	base $461	+0.5pp $403	+1.0pp $343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2017-09-20
   soldstatus 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   Fabulous Cottage! 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. THIS PROPERTY QUALIFIES FOR 100% FINANCING THROUGH USDA RURAL HOUSING. Own this 3-bedroom home for less than rent! This cute, move-in ready home is tucked away in Haley Creek Subdivision which is in the popular Germantown school zone. Inside you'll find wood laminate flooring, fireplace, roomy bedrooms, walk in closets, and so much more! Fully fenced backyard. This really is a great find! Call to schedule your showing today!

4. 2017-07-01
   listed $125,000 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   Fabulous Cottage! 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. THIS PROPERTY QUALIFIES FOR 100% FINANCING THROUGH USDA RURAL HOUSING. Own this 3-bedroom home for less than rent! This cute, move-in ready home is tucked away in Haley Creek Subdivision which is in the popular Germantown school zone. Inside you'll find wood laminate flooring, fireplace, roomy bedrooms, walk in closets, and so much more! Fully fenced backyard. This really is a great find! Call to schedule your showing today!

5. 1998-01-06
   soldstatus
6. 1995-10-25
   soldstatus
7. 1991-08-02
   soldstatus
8. 1991-08-02
   soldstatus
9. 1991-06-07
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,201/yr (+$100/mo · 208.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$576
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,897
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$455
• After-tax cash flow: $5,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+80.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-24 Listed $225,000 MLSU
• 2017-09-20 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-07-01 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 1998-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $576 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.