627 Commonwealth Ave · New York, NY 10473

$949,990

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,850 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1960 2,200 sqft lot Est $915k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to 627 Commonwealth Ave, a three-level multi-family residence offering 2,850 square feet of living space in a vibrant Bronx neighborhood. Built in 1960, this brick townhouse combines classic urban character with practical functionality across a 2,200 square-foot lot. The home showcases hardwood flooring throughout living areas, creating warmth and continuity. The kitchen features wooden cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and ample counter space, while the living and dining areas flow naturally with large windows providing abundant natural light. A mirrored accent wall adds visual interest to the main living space, and ceiling fans throughout help with air circulation. This prope

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Large windows
• Wooden cabinetry

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• WOODEN CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WINDOWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; One parking space; One-car garage
• Utilities: Con-Edison electric; Public sewer; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Duplex
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Awnings

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two 3-bedroom units
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Basement (full)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $950k).
• Recommended offer: $921k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,740/mo this rent would consume 223% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 3913% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($921k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $500k; list at $950k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $921,490 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $914,850
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
566 Bolton Ave	0.37mi	6/2.0	2,800 (-2%)	13mo	$900,000	$321	69
1815 Patterson Ave	0.36mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,625 (-8%)	2mo	$752,200	$287	63
1894 Seward Ave	0.35mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,748 (-4%)	8mo	$850,000	$309	62
454 Commonwealth Ave	0.30mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,730 (-4%)	10mo	$920,000	$337	62
447 Saint Lawrence Ave	0.25mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,745 (-4%)	15mo	$950,000	$346	61
485 Commonwealth Ave	0.24mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,650 (-7%)	10mo	$840,000	$317	60
622 Saint Lawrence Ave	0.08mi	5/— (-1)	2,540 (-11%)	21mo	$765,000	$301	56
1106 Saint Lawrence Ave	0.73mi	6/2.0	2,800 (-2%)	9mo	$1,100,000	$393	56
2067 Seward Ave	0.70mi	6/2.0	2,680 (-6%)	5mo	$850,000	$317	54
410 Thieriot Ave	0.39mi	7/3.0 (+1)	3,110 (+9%)	6mo	$925,000	$297	53
1036 Metcalf Ave	0.66mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,500 (-12%)	2mo	$870,000	$348	42
250 Newman Ave	0.72mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,470 (-13%)	7mo	$860,000	$348	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-44,375
• Equity at exit: $141,647

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $101,836
• Equity at exit: $82,138

Cash invested: $265,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10473

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 24.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax from tax record: −$593 /mo · $7,119/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,045
• Net cashflow: $1,724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,558

Max offer price $949,990

Occupancy floor 77%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$9,741
Total (3 units)			$9,740

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,498
• Closing costs: $28,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $949,990 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $949,990 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $949,990 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $949,990 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $949,990 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $949,990 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $949,990 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $949,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $949,990 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $949,990 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $949,990 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $949,990 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-04-15
    listed $949,990 Active
14. 2011-06-23
    historical
15. 2011-02-15
    listed $429,000
16. 2006-07-01
    soldstatus $499,900
17. 2000-02-08
    soldstatus $175,000
18. 1994-10-05
    soldstatus $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,119 · $593/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,587 · $966/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,468/yr (+$372/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $116,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,214
• − Property taxes: −$7,119
• − Insurance: −$4,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,350
• − Management: −$9,350
• − Depreciation: −$27,636
• Taxable income: $5,460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,310
• After-tax cash flow: $19,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,855
• Household income: $52,462
• Rent vs Own: 71.4% rent · 28.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3913.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 34% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 31% Dominican 20%
• Common ancestry: British 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.70%
• Current HPI: 276.2941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+427.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $949,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-15 Listed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $499,900 Public Records
• 2000-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,119 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.