6020 Lake · Oak Glen, CA 92305

$225,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1953 6,000 sqft lot $346/sqft · at area comps Est $223k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable Mountain Cabin – Perfect Starter or Weekend Getaway! You won’t find a cuter or more affordable home on the mountain! This charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath cabin offers everything you need for a first-time home buyer or the perfect weekend retreat. Enjoy the mild mountain climate in the summer and cozy up in the winter with both a wood-burning stove and a propane floor furnace to keep the cabin warm and inviting. The bedroom features two large closets and overhead storage cabinets, providing ample room for your belongings. The kitchen, while compact, is well-equipped and functional—ideal for whipping up home-cooked meals after a day of hiking or relaxing in nature. While not included in this sale, the adjacent vacant lot is also available for an additional amount; offering the opportunity to expand, garden, or simply enjoy added privacy. APN#0305-562-29-0000. Located in the welcoming community of Angelus Oaks, this property is more than just a cabin—it’s a chance to be part of a peaceful, close-knit mountain neighborhood. Don’t miss your opportunity to own this gem—make Angelus Oaks your next home!

Key facts

• Two large closets
• Adjacent vacant lot
• Wood burning stove

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• PROPANE FLOOR FURNACE
• TWO LARGE CLOSETS
• OVERHEAD STORAGE CABINETS
• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ADJACENT VACANT LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.6% in Oak Glen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,386 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $225k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,782 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,216
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 0.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37763 Frontage Rd	0.58mi	1/2.0	743 (+14%)	20mo	$195,000	$262	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $42,071
• Equity at exit: $106,996

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $129,645
• Equity at exit: $169,575

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92305

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,758

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $214	+0% $150	+5% $86	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $-4	-5% $73	+0% $150	+5% $227	+10% $304
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $207	base $150	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-04-04
    listed $225,000 Active 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    Adorable Mountain Cabin – Perfect Starter or Weekend Getaway! You won’t find a cuter or more affordable home on the mountain! This charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath cabin offers everything you need for a first-time home buyer or the perfect weekend retreat. Enjoy the mild mountain climate in the summer and cozy up in the winter with both a wood-burning stove and a propane floor furnace to keep the cabin warm and inviting. The bedroom features two large closets and overhead storage cabinets, providing ample room for your belongings. The kitchen, while compact, is well-equipped and functional—ideal for whipping up home-cooked meals after a day of hiking or relaxing in nature. While not included in this sale, the adjacent vacant lot is also available for an additional amount; offering the opportunity to expand, garden, or simply enjoy added privacy. APN#0305-562-29-0000. Located in the welcoming community of Angelus Oaks, this property is more than just a cabin—it’s a chance to be part of a peaceful, close-knit mountain neighborhood. Don’t miss your opportunity to own this gem—make Angelus Oaks your next home!

16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-07-27
    listed $225,000 Active
18. 2014-07-25
    soldstatus $87,000
19. 2013-09-29
    historical
20. 2013-06-23
    listed $115,000 Active
21. 1979-09-07
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$28/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 11 d/yr ≥87°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,020
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$485
• After-tax cash flow: $2,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oak Glen

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #1386
• US rank: #27266

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 371

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Iranian 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 21%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 307.1726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+368.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-27 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2014-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2013-06-23 Listed $115,000 CRMLS
• 1979-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,380 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.