711 S Rain St NE · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2019 6,956 sqft lot $190/sqft · 58% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained 2019 manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, ideal for full time living or a relaxing coastal getaway. Step inside to an inviting open concept layout with a spacious kitchen that flows into the living area, making it great for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private ¾ bath, while two additional bedrooms and a full guest bath. A small covered porch creates a cozy spot to relax and enjoy the peaceful setting. Outside, the fully fenced yard with a locking gate offers privacy and function. A permitted carport on a concrete slab provides covered parking, along with an attached powered workshop for storage or projects. There is

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Locking gate
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• COVERED PORCH
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• LOCKING GATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety C-.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.57%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,600
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 57.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
639 Birch Pl NE	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-9%)	12mo	$300,000	$391	54
770 Duck Lake Dr SE	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+3%)	9mo	$280,000	$324	53
184 Frigate St NW	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+3%)	12mo	$285,000	$330	46
607 Sunset Ave NE	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	801 (-5%)	24mo	$289,900	$362	43
199 Albatross St NE	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+3%)	12mo	$367,000	$425	42
574 Ensign Ave NW	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (+13%)	8mo	$275,000	$289	36
575 Ensign Ave NW	0.59mi	3/1.5	960 (+14%)	18mo	$224,900	$234	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,203
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $26,400
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,388/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,293

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
569 Sunset Ave NE Unit A Ocean Shores, WA	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,500	$1.50	43d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $160,000 Active
3. 2022-03-31
   soldstatus $215,700 Closed
4. 2022-02-16
   status Pending
5. 2022-02-14
   listed $209,900 Active
6. 2019-05-03
   soldstatus $15,000 Sold
7. 2019-04-23
   status Pending
8. 2018-07-26
   listed $15,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,388 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$180/yr (+$15/mo · 12.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥72°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,388
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$428
• After-tax cash flow: $3,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+966.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $160,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-31 Sold (MLS) $215,700 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-14 Listed $209,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-03 Sold (MLS) $15,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-26 Listed $15,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,388 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.