Melbourne Plan · Leesburg, FL 34788

$361,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,692 sqft · SingleFamily · 186 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Melbourne - Designed for Family Living and Open Spaces The Melbourne floor plan features a bright, open-concept layout perfect for bringing your family together. Step into a spacious family room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining areas, creating an airy space filled with natural light. The kitchen offers ample counter space, a large center island, and plenty of room for meal prep and gathering. A convenient rear staircase leads you upstairs to the private living areas. Upstairs, the master suite boasts a generous walk-in closet and dual vanities, while three additional bedrooms share a centrally located bathroom. Need extra space?

Key facts

• Master suite
• Ample counter space
• Large center island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• REAR STAIRCASE
• MASTER SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $361,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $576,601.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $362k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 4.4% in Leesburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Treadway Elementary School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 879 students, 66% FRL); Oak Park Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 575 students, 70% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 49% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 483 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,913/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,319 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.51%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $576,601
• List price: $361,990
• Delta: -37.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9335 Silver Lake Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,994 (+11%)	11mo	$645,000	$215	38
9704 Wedgewood Ln	1.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,222 (-18%)	3mo	$302,000	$136	33
9560 Starling Loop	0.86mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,856 (+6%)	14mo	$395,000	$138	32
9507 Mid Summer Ln	0.88mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,100 (+15%)	9mo	$500,000	$161	26
9513 Mid Summer Ln	0.88mi	4/3.5	3,228 (+20%)	16mo	$665,000	$206	23
9518 Mid Summer Ln	0.84mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,129 (+16%)	14mo	$740,000	$236	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-200,603
• Equity at exit: $85,973

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.94×
• Total profit: $-312,556
• Equity at exit: $49,854

Cash invested: $161,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 5 under contract
• Median asking: $364,990 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 100 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +28.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34788

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Active inventory: 483
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,913 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,024
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$721 /mo · $8,649/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-1,683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,044

Max offer price $333,019

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,285	-5% $-1,484	+0% $-1,683	+5% $-1,883	+10% $-2,082
Rent	-10% $-1,913	-5% $-1,798	+0% $-1,683	+5% $-1,568	+10% $-1,453
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,393	-0.5pp $-1,537	base $-1,683	+0.5pp $-1,833	+1.0pp $-1,985

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,150
• Closing costs: $17,298
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33732 Spring Dr Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2170	$3,000	$1.38	73d	1	0.37mi
33932 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,400	$1.14	73d	1	1.13mi
9502 Revere Ave Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.5	2109	$2,600	$1.23	27d	1	1.28mi
34333 Shadewood Cir Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1977	$2,501	$1.27	36d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8711 County Road 44, Leesburg FL 34788
• Financial info: List price $361,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planMelbourne plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2692

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom2.5 bathrooms total
• Interior features: Plan named MelbourneActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $361,990 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $361,990 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $361,990 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $361,990 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $361,990 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $361,990 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $361,990 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $361,990 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $361,990 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $361,990 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $361,990 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $361,990 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $361,990 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $361,990 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $361,990 Active 167 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $361,990 Active 165 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $361,990 Active 164 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $361,990 Active 163 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $361,990 Active 162 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $361,990 Active 161 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $361,990 Active 160 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $361,990 Active 159 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $361,990 Active 158 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $361,990 Active 157 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $361,990 Active 156 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $361,990 Active 154 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $361,990 Active 153 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $361,990 Active 152 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $361,990 Active 150 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $361,990 Active 149 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $361,990 Active 148 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $361,990 Active 147 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $361,990 Active 146 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $361,990 Active 145 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $361,990 Active 144 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $361,990 Active 143 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $361,990 Active 141 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $361,990 Active 139 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $361,990 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $361,990 Active 135 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $361,990 Active 134 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $361,990 Active 133 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $361,990 Active 132 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $361,990 Active 130 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $361,990 Active 126 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $361,990 Active 125 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $361,990 Active 124 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $361,990 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $361,990 Active 120 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $361,990 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,299
• − Property taxes: −$8,649
• − Insurance: −$2,883
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,797
• − Management: −$2,797
• − Depreciation: −$16,774
• Taxable loss: −$31,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,497
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,460–$40,380 screening

The home is in good condition with fresh paint and well-maintained landscaping. Minor touch-ups and updates to the kitchen and bathrooms can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can make the home look more inviting ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rimes Early Learning & Literacy Center Middle Oak Park Middle School F FL #426/571 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Leesburg High School F FL #464/667 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 386,640 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,137
• Household income: $54,147
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.07%
• Current HPI: 273.6616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8711 County Road 44, Leesburg FL 34788
• Financial info: List price $361,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planMelbourne plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2692

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom2.5 bathrooms total
• Interior features: Plan named MelbourneActive listing