64900 Hunnell Rd Unit 12 · Tumalo, OR 97703

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1970 $138/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Mermaid Cottage--a fully remodeled, double-wide manufactured home that lives like a curated retreat. This 1 bed, 1 bath gem is packed with personality, from the iconic pink door with mermaid detail to the vibrant, custom-designed interior. Inside, you'll find a complete top-to-bottom renovation including updated wiring (2024), new windows, insulation, flooring (LVP + tile), ceiling finishes, lighting, and a beautifully refreshed kitchen with epoxy countertops, farm sink, new appliances, and added pantry storage. The bathroom and bedroom continue the cohesive, thoughtfully designed aesthetic. Outdoor living shines with wraparound covered porches, a fully fenced yard, added storage shed with shelving, and privacy backing to a spacious common area. Hot tub-ready with electrical already in place. Located in a well-kept park with $800/month space rent including water & garbage, this is an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle with high design appeal. Come see why we're so obsessed.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1970
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 1.1% in Tumalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#277 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Redmond SD 2J (town): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 58 in OR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,624 units permitted in Deschutes County in 2024 (391 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Deschutes County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $71k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.00%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,500
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 53.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64900 Hunnell Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	792 (+10%)	1mo	$64,500	$81	82
20818 89th St	0.61mi	2/1.0	784 (+9%)	17mo	$360,000	$459	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $36,263
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $110,110
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97703

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $99,000 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Welcome to The Mermaid Cottage--a fully remodeled, double-wide manufactured home that lives like a curated retreat. This 1 bed, 1 bath gem is packed with personality, from the iconic pink door with mermaid detail to the vibrant, custom-designed interior. Inside, you'll find a complete top-to-bottom renovation including updated wiring (2024), new windows, insulation, flooring (LVP + tile), ceiling finishes, lighting, and a beautifully refreshed kitchen with epoxy countertops, farm sink, new appliances, and added pantry storage. The bathroom and bedroom continue the cohesive, thoughtfully designed aesthetic. Outdoor living shines with wraparound covered porches, a fully fenced yard, added storage shed with shelving, and privacy backing to a spacious common area. Hot tub-ready with electrical already in place. Located in a well-kept park with $800/month space rent including water & garbage, this is an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle with high design appeal. Come see why we're so obsessed.

16. 2026-04-10
    status Active 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Welcome to The Mermaid Cottage--a fully remodeled, double-wide manufactured home that lives like a curated retreat. This 1 bed, 1 bath gem is packed with personality, from the iconic pink door with mermaid detail to the vibrant, custom-designed interior. Inside, you'll find a complete top-to-bottom renovation including updated wiring (2024), new windows, insulation, flooring (LVP + tile), ceiling finishes, lighting, and a beautifully refreshed kitchen with epoxy countertops, farm sink, new appliances, and added pantry storage. The bathroom and bedroom continue the cohesive, thoughtfully designed aesthetic. Outdoor living shines with wraparound covered porches, a fully fenced yard, added storage shed with shelving, and privacy backing to a spacious common area. Hot tub-ready with electrical already in place. Located in a well-kept park with $800/month space rent including water & garbage, this is an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle with high design appeal. Come see why we're so obsessed.

17. 2026-04-07
    status Pending 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Welcome to The Mermaid Cottage--a fully remodeled, double-wide manufactured home that lives like a curated retreat. This 1 bed, 1 bath gem is packed with personality, from the iconic pink door with mermaid detail to the vibrant, custom-designed interior. Inside, you'll find a complete top-to-bottom renovation including updated wiring (2024), new windows, insulation, flooring (LVP + tile), ceiling finishes, lighting, and a beautifully refreshed kitchen with epoxy countertops, farm sink, new appliances, and added pantry storage. The bathroom and bedroom continue the cohesive, thoughtfully designed aesthetic. Outdoor living shines with wraparound covered porches, a fully fenced yard, added storage shed with shelving, and privacy backing to a spacious common area. Hot tub-ready with electrical already in place. Located in a well-kept park with $800/month space rent including water & garbage, this is an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle with high design appeal. Come see why we're so obsessed.

18. 2026-03-26
    listed $110,000 Active 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Welcome to The Mermaid Cottage--a fully remodeled, double-wide manufactured home that lives like a curated retreat. This 1 bed, 1 bath gem is packed with personality, from the iconic pink door with mermaid detail to the vibrant, custom-designed interior. Inside, you'll find a complete top-to-bottom renovation including updated wiring (2024), new windows, insulation, flooring (LVP + tile), ceiling finishes, lighting, and a beautifully refreshed kitchen with epoxy countertops, farm sink, new appliances, and added pantry storage. The bathroom and bedroom continue the cohesive, thoughtfully designed aesthetic. Outdoor living shines with wraparound covered porches, a fully fenced yard, added storage shed with shelving, and privacy backing to a spacious common area. Hot tub-ready with electrical already in place. Located in a well-kept park with $800/month space rent including water & garbage, this is an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle with high design appeal. Come see why we're so obsessed.

19. 2024-09-13
    soldstatus $71,000 Closed
20. 2024-08-28
    status Pending
21. 2024-08-10
    price $75,000
22. 2024-07-29
    listed $79,000 Active
23. 2022-01-07
    soldstatus $33,500 Closed
24. 2021-12-21
    status Pending
25. 2021-12-02
    price $35,000
26. 2021-11-16
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥92°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $8,052
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,932
• After-tax cash flow: $7,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Redmond SD 2J
• NCES district ID: 4110350
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 28.72/100
• National rank: #6682
• State rank: #28 of 58 in OR

Livability — Tumalo

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #277
• US rank: #18626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Deschutes County · 197,892 people
• Metro: Bend, OR
• Population (ZIP): 34,108
• Household income: $120,841
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Deschutes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,908 people
• By 2030: 232,387 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 265,858 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 295,286 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 353,553 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 380,293 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Deschutes

• 2024 margin: D (+10.1) · D 53.6% · R 43.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.4pp toward D · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: 10.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.1 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+3.8 2012: R+7.3 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -758.84%
• Current HPI: 474.8025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Metro: Bend, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+147.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $99,000 MLSCO
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-04-07 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-03-26 Listed $110,000 MLSCO
• 2024-09-13 Sold (MLS) $71,000 MLSCO
• 2024-08-28 Pending — MLSCO
• 2024-08-10 Price Changed $75,000 MLSCO
• 2024-07-29 Listed $79,000 MLSCO
• 2022-01-07 Sold (MLS) $33,500 MLSCO
• 2021-12-21 Pending — MLSCO
• 2021-12-02 Price Changed $35,000 MLSCO
• 2021-11-16 Listed $40,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2021): $103 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.