20733 Crest Pine Easement · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$242,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1976 0.26 ac lot $166/sqft · 33% below area Est $361k · 33% under $306/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated cabin retreat nestled in the heart of the sought-after gated community of Pine Mountain Lake in Groveland, CA. This charming A-frame home has been extensively renovated from top to bottom featuring new vinyl plank flooring throughout, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated electrical, new wood siding with dry rot fully remediated, and a freshly painted wrap-around deck perfect for taking in the serene surroundings. The open concept kitchen and living area with open beam ceilings creates a warm and inviting atmosphere, while the two downstairs bedrooms and upstairs loft with private bathroom offer flexible living arrangements for family, guests, or re

Key facts

• Gated community
• Updated electrical
• Open concept kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• EXTENSIVELY RENOVATED
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• NEW WOOD SIDING
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Pine Mountain Lake subdivision, Groveland, CA 95321
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA in gated Pine Mountain Lake community; Community amenities: barbeque, clubhouse, lake, park; Monthly association fee (includes security and pool)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Security: Community security included in HOA
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; 220-volt electric; Cable available; Internet available; Propane tank leased; Irrigation available
• Home design: Attached single-family residence; Two stories; Entry level includes living room and kitchen; Built in 1976; Composition roof
• Construction: Composition roof; Built in 1976
• Exterior features: Gated community; Lake access; Level driveway/sidewalks; No private pool or spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Wood counters; Gas cook top; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (master includes closet); Main level includes bedroom(s)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s) and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood stove heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Wood stove fireplace (1 total); Dual-pane full windows; Uncovered deck attached to living area; Loft
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($691/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $242k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $242k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,225 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,693
• List price: $242,500
• Delta: -32.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20439 Pine Mountain Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (+11%)	1mo	$288,000	$177	71
20409 Pine Mountain Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+2%)	9mo	$315,000	$212	71
12904 Green Valley Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-2%)	10mo	$345,000	$240	66
20631 Nob Hill Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+8%)	6mo	$367,500	$233	66
12759 Cresthaven Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-3%)	0mo	$359,000	$254	64
20515 Nob Hill Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+13%)	7mo	$275,000	$167	59
12599 Cresthaven	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,368 (-7%)	10mo	$367,000	$268	58
12874 Green Valley Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,348 (-8%)	2mo	$329,000	$244	58
20913 Big Foot Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (+0%)	7mo	$1,020,000	$696	57
12632 Cresthaven Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+12%)	6mo	$290,000	$177	50
20883 Big Foot Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (+8%)	7mo	$310,000	$196	43
12727 Hetch Hetchy Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (+11%)	7mo	$325,000	$200	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-35,440
• Equity at exit: $36,158

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-25,379
• Equity at exit: $20,967

Cash invested: $67,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,272
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,864/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$306
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,427

Max offer price $242,500

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,625
• Closing costs: $7,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19570 Cottonwood St Groveland, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	21d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $306 · $3,672/yr
• Likely covers: electricsecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $242,500 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,500 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,500 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,500 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,500 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $242,500 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $242,500 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,500 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,500 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $242,500 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $242,500 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $242,500 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,500 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,500 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,500 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,500 Active 22 DOM
17. 2004-05-04
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,864 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,864 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,584
• − Property taxes: −$2,864
• − Insurance: −$1,212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$3,672
• − Depreciation: −$7,055
• Taxable loss: −$3,187
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$765
• After-tax cash flow: $1,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2004-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,864 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.