903 E Capitol Ave · Jefferson City, MO 65101

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1910 9,147 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 1910, this charming historic home sits just steps from the rich history of the Old Missouri State Penitentiary. Filled with character & timeless appeal, the property offers a unique opportunity to restore and personalize a piece of the past. While the home needs some TLC, its classic architecture, historic setting, and potential make it an ideal project for those looking to bring new life to a century-old treasure.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1910

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Classified as a fixer
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: 0.21-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Includes dishwasher, range, refrigerator, washer and dryer; No fireplace; 7 total rooms; Walk-out partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $784 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 29.9% vs local median 3.7% in Jefferson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#7 in MO, #838 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Jefferson City (urban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.22%
• DSCR: 4.75
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,788
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 S Polk St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-2%)	13mo	$196,000	$131	66
824 Clark Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+2%)	15mo	$192,000	$122	48
707 Maple St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,555 (+1%)	20mo	$139,900	$90	47
1303 Cottage Ln	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,411 (-8%)	10mo	$110,000	$78	44
704 Hobb Ter	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,428 (-7%)	13mo	$180,000	$126	38
202 S Lincoln St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,496 (-3%)	19mo	$194,900	$130	37
1422 Willcoxon Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,314 (-15%)	4mo	$209,900	$160	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $43,514
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.16×
• Total profit: $102,369
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65101

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,040/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $784

Break-even live

Break-even rent $396

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $39,900 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   remarks 429-char remark
3. 2026-06-10
   listed $39,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,040
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,357
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,246
• After-tax cash flow: $7,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson City
• NCES district ID: 2916190
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,903
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4930
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jefferson City

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #838

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson City, MO
• City population: 41,145
• Population (ZIP): 29,777

Population outlook (Cole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,107 people
• By 2030: 78,089 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 76,814 · -1.7%
• By 2050: 74,515 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 67,687 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 55,023 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.4) · D 32.1% · R 66.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -34.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.4 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.16%
• Current HPI: 209.3832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $39,900 JCMLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,040 · +61.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.