3015 Avenue · Birmingham, AL 35208

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1920 7,405 sqft lot $48/sqft · 11% above area Est $59k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom 2 bath with great space and potential. Convenient to downtown.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.17 acres; Parcel ID: 29-00-05-3-017-004.000
• Financial info: Garbage fee collected quarterly
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Internet available (Spectrum, AT&T); Electric water heater
• Home design: Existing construction; Siding: Vinyl; Crawl space foundation; Tri-level: No; Split level: No; Split foyer: No; Loft: No; Subdivision: ENSLEY
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: No pool; No patio; No decks; No garden/patio; Not waterfront; Lot in flood plain: No

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Electric oven; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Additional bedroom(s) on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood and laminate floors; Brick wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Attic; Ceilings: Other (see remarks); No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Minor Elementary School (math 0% / reading 14%, grade F, #601 of 627 statewide, top 98%, 454 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.38%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,712
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 10.71%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3300 Avenue Q	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,227 (-9%)	0mo	$35,000	$29	69
1820 33rd St	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,212 (-10%)	7mo	$40,000	$33	69
2436 29th St W	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,398 (+4%)	2mo	$98,100	$70	68
4645 Avenue U	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,374 (+2%)	9mo	$73,000	$53	63
3009 Prince Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-13%)	8mo	$50,000	$43	62
2321 22nd St Ensley	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,388 (+3%)	0mo	$77,000	$55	58
1836 Bessemer Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,258 (-7%)	4mo	$55,000	$44	53
4728 Terrace	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (-6%)	4mo	$29,900	$23	50
1515 35th St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,205 (-11%)	1mo	$80,000	$66	48
1607 43rd St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,435 (+6%)	5mo	$85,000	$59	44
2627 28th St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,412 (+5%)	8mo	$179,900	$127	44
1414 27th St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (-13%)	4mo	$50,000	$43	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $21,894
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $76,803
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35208

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,053/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $577

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3009 Prince Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,095	$0.93	24d	1	0.13mi
3221 Avenue S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,250	$1.05	24d	1	0.19mi
3017 Ensley Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1540	$1,400	$0.91	2d	1	0.23mi
1633 29th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,200	$0.72	44d	1	0.30mi
2037 26th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1074	$995	$0.93	44d	1	0.31mi
2348 Court R Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1792	$1,769	$0.99	2d	1	0.34mi
1616 28th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1081	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.35mi
2329 30th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	917	$990	$1.08	24d	1	0.35mi
1545 29th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1331	$1,200	$0.90	44d	1	0.39mi
2421 29th Street Ensley Unit C Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$703	$0.74	24d	1	0.40mi
2426 Avenue U Unit U Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,175	$0.93	19d	1	0.42mi
2610 Avenue P Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1014	$850	$0.84	44d	1	0.45mi
1521 27th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	44d	1	0.46mi
1528 34th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	972	$1,073	$1.10	44d	1	0.49mi
4612 Terrace S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1612	$1,050	$0.65	44d	1	0.50mi
2133 47th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,300	$0.99	44d	1	0.51mi
4105 Avenue Q Unit Q Birmingham, AL	3.0	3.0	1760	$1,250	$0.71	3d	1	0.54mi
2337 23rd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1446	$1,295	$0.90	44d	1	0.55mi
4637 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1225	$975	$0.80	2d	1	0.57mi
2528 25th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1563	$1,100	$0.70	44d	1	0.59mi
1417 34th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1103	$1,025	$0.93	44d	1	0.63mi
1520 41st Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,195	$1.12	44d	1	0.64mi
1617 42nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1413	$1,030	$0.73	16d	1	0.65mi
2017 48th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,250	$0.90	44d	1	0.65mi
1540 42nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	899	$1,037	$1.15	44d	1	0.66mi
2356 22nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1500	$985	$0.66	24d	1	0.68mi
1420 Warrior Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1061	$1,050	$0.99	44d	1	0.68mi
4732 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1372	$1,100	$0.80	44d	1	0.68mi
1429 Warrior Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1036	$850	$0.82	16d	1	0.69mi
4736 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,200	$0.92	3d	1	0.69mi
1301 32nd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1200	$975	$0.81	44d	1	0.71mi
1607 43rd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,150	$0.80	24d	1	0.71mi
4813 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,125	$1.01	44d	1	0.73mi
4801 Avenue S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1310	$1,000	$0.76	44d	1	0.74mi
1306 35th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,173	$1.07	3d	1	0.74mi
1313 Pike Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1437	$975	$0.68	44d	1	0.75mi
1604 44th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	24d	1	0.75mi
4825 Avenue S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1310	$1,050	$0.80	16d	1	0.79mi
2712 24th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,099	$0.89	24d	1	0.79mi
4724 Court R Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1016	$895	$0.88	14d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $65,000 Active 72-char remark
15. 2026-03-27
    price $80,000
16. 2025-05-14
    price $76,500
17. 2025-05-14
    price $80,000
18. 2004-09-22
    soldstatus $47,989

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,053 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,053 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,053
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,397
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,055
• After-tax cash flow: $4,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,412
• Household income: $38,561
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 573.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% White 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.99%
• Current HPI: 153.414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.24%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+35.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $65,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $80,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $76,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $80,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2004-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $47,989 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,053 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.