364 Palero Path · Pattison, TX 77423

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · Land · 39 Days on market

Built 2025 $185/sqft · 5% below area Est $270k · 5% under $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this beautiful Single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, granite countertops, and 42-inch cabinets! Enjoy vinyl flooring throughout, cozy carpet in all the bedrooms, Covered patio and energy-efficient double-paned vinyl windows. The open floor plan is perfect for entertaining! Schedule your showings TODAY!!!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vinyl flooring
• 42-inch cabinets

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 42-INCH CABINETS
• VINYL FLOORING
• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-154/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,991 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,582
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -5.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-48,119
• Equity at exit: $38,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-66,088
• Equity at exit: $22,047

Cash invested: $71,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,036

Max offer price $252,727

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,748
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $254,990 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $254,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-04-22
   listed $254,990 Active 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Don't miss this beautiful Single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, granite countertops, and 42-inch cabinets! Enjoy vinyl flooring throughout, cozy carpet in all the bedrooms, Covered patio and energy-efficient double-paned vinyl windows. The open floor plan is perfect for entertaining! Schedule your showings TODAY!!!

4. 2026-04-21
   historical
5. 2026-02-19
   listed $254,990 Active
6. 2026-02-18
   historical
7. 2026-01-26
   price $254,990
8. 2025-11-11
   listed $259,990 Active
9. 2025-11-10
   historical
10. 2025-07-29
    listed $259,990 Active
11. 2025-07-28
    historical
12. 2025-07-24
    price $259,990
13. 2025-06-21
    price $267,290
14. 2025-05-02
    listed $272,290 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,681/yr (+$307/mo · 373.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,283
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $267,290 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $272,290 HARMLS