126 Lockwood Ave · Buffalo, NY 14220

$219,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1910 3,861 sqft lot Est $270k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cash or 203K Financing only! Owner cannot do repairs. . Great potential in this large 4+ bedroom home. 5th bedroom is large sitting/nursery/reading room off 4th bedroom. Loads of beautiful natural woodwork and hardwood floors make this home loaded with potential for owner or investor! Pocket doors, large entry foyer with stately staircase . Full attic for endless possibilities or storage. 2 car garage, open front porch. Let your inagination go!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Original woodwork
• Historic home

Tags

• HISTORIC HOME
• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• NEWLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• BRAND-NEW CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($446/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $220k implies a 566% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,594 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,541
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Lockwood Ave	0.00mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,809 (0%)	1mo	$220,300	$122	94
1062 Tifft St	0.42mi	4/1.5	1,800 (-0%)	0mo	$180,000	$100	79
29 Allegany St	0.25mi	4/1.0	1,750 (-3%)	2mo	$229,900	$131	79
37 Bloomfield Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,874 (+4%)	5mo	$225,000	$120	75
64 Alsace Ave	0.64mi	4/1.5	1,824 (+1%)	1mo	$360,000	$197	68
53 Choate Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,599 (-12%)	1mo	$198,000	$124	59
106 Cantwell Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,889 (+4%)	3mo	$360,000	$191	55
81 Como Ave	0.50mi	4/1.0	2,014 (+11%)	3mo	$100,000	$50	53
179 Columbus Ave	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,664 (-8%)	2mo	$272,026	$163	52
70 Alsace Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,968 (+9%)	1mo	$341,000	$173	47
60 Lorraine Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,581 (-13%)	5mo	$359,000	$227	42
289 Okell St	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,560 (-14%)	5mo	$232,500	$149	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,231
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $17,410
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 Woodside Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,510	$1.21	1d	1	0.38mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	10d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $219,900 Active
3. 2015-12-10
   soldstatus $33,000 Closed Sale or Rented 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   Cash or 203K Financing only! Owner cannot do repairs. . Great potential in this large 4+ bedroom home. 5th bedroom is large sitting/nursery/reading room off 4th bedroom. Loads of beautiful natural woodwork and hardwood floors make this home loaded with potential for owner or investor! Pocket doors, large entry foyer with stately staircase . Full attic for endless possibilities or storage. 2 car garage, open front porch. Let your inagination go!

4. 2015-08-27
   status Pending Sale 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   Cash or 203K Financing only! Owner cannot do repairs. . Great potential in this large 4+ bedroom home. 5th bedroom is large sitting/nursery/reading room off 4th bedroom. Loads of beautiful natural woodwork and hardwood floors make this home loaded with potential for owner or investor! Pocket doors, large entry foyer with stately staircase . Full attic for endless possibilities or storage. 2 car garage, open front porch. Let your inagination go!

5. 2015-08-21
   listed $29,900 Active 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   Cash or 203K Financing only! Owner cannot do repairs. . Great potential in this large 4+ bedroom home. 5th bedroom is large sitting/nursery/reading room off 4th bedroom. Loads of beautiful natural woodwork and hardwood floors make this home loaded with potential for owner or investor! Pocket doors, large entry foyer with stately staircase . Full attic for endless possibilities or storage. 2 car garage, open front porch. Let your inagination go!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,110 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,606/yr (+$134/mo · 318.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$822
• After-tax cash flow: $1,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+635.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $219,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-12-10 Sold (MLS) $33,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-08-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-08-21 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $504 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.