648 Valley Crest Dr #648 · Birmingham, AL 35215

$74,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,088 sqft · Townhouse · 151 Days on market

Built 1981 $69/sqft · 12% below area Est $85k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Eastbrook Manor Townhomes in the Center Point/Birmingham, AL area offers low-maintenance living with various 2- and 3-bedroom options for rent or purchase, featuring amenities like private patios, updated interiors, and proximity to local spots. This 2/2 is easy on the budget for an owner occupant and also a home-run for investors looking to add to their portfolio. Unit is currently vacant. Unit 648 is also available from the same seller. Current investor owner is retiring from this market and ready to sell!

Key facts

• Private patios
• Updated interiors
• Built 1981

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIOS
• UPDATED INTERIORS
• PROXIMITY TO LOCAL SPOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $75k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.00%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,153
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -12.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
632 Valley Crest Dr #632	0.01mi	2/1.5	1,088 (0%)	12mo	$62,500	$57	89
612 Valley Crest Dr Unit N/A	0.02mi	2/1.5	1,088 (0%)	23mo	$80,000	$74	80
435 Valley Crest Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (+11%)	8mo	$83,500	$69	47
451 Valley Crest Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (+11%)	12mo	$99,900	$83	46
317 Valley Crest Dr #317	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (+11%)	3mo	$70,000	$58	39
327 Valley Crest Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (+11%)	22mo	$91,000	$75	25
309 Valley Crest Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (+11%)	22mo	$85,000	$70	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $17,987
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $54,647
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $524	-5% $498	+0% $472	+5% $446	+10% $420
Rent	-10% $373	-5% $422	+0% $472	+5% $521	+10% $571
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $491	base $472	+0.5pp $452	+1.0pp $433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
656 Valley Crest Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,350	$1.24	2d	1	0.00mi
660 Valley Crest Dr Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,139	$1.20	2d	9	0.15mi
40 Sunscape Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,555	$1.21	2d	1	0.78mi
5 1st St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1020	$900	$0.88	44d	1	1.25mi
848 Old Trail Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	930	$925	$0.99	24d	1	1.31mi
241 Mamie Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,495	$1.20	4d	1	1.41mi
316 Pine St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,100	$0.89	44d	1	1.47mi
252 Meadowdale Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	920	$995	$1.08	44d	1	1.48mi
217 Killough Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,200	$0.99	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $74,900 Pending 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $74,900 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $74,900 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-01-15
    listed $74,900 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Eastbrook Manor Townhomes in the Center Point/Birmingham, AL area offers low-maintenance living with various 2- and 3-bedroom options for rent or purchase, featuring amenities like private patios, updated interiors, and proximity to local spots. This 2/2 is easy on the budget for an owner occupant and also a home-run for investors looking to add to their portfolio. Unit is currently vacant. Unit 648 is also available from the same seller. Current investor owner is retiring from this market and ready to sell!

13. 2025-01-12
    price $72,000
14. 2024-12-31
    price $72,500
15. 2024-11-05
    price $75,000
16. 2024-08-12
    price $70,000
17. 2024-07-15
    price $85,000
18. 2023-03-17
    soldstatus $47,500 Sold
19. 2023-02-24
    status Pending
20. 2023-02-19
    listed $65,000 Active
21. 2018-05-20
    soldstatus $17,500 Sold
22. 2018-05-09
    historical
23. 2018-03-23
    listed $34,500 Active
24. 2018-01-13
    price $34,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $4,753
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $4,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+117.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $74,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-01-12 Price Changed $72,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $72,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $75,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-08-12 Price Changed $70,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $85,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-03-17 Sold (MLS) $47,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-02-24 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-02-19 Listed $65,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-05-20 Sold (MLS) $17,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-05-09 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-03-23 Listed $34,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-01-13 Price Changed $34,500 Greater Alabama MLS