228 Elm Patch Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$295,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,586 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2019 5,128 sqft lot $114/sqft · at area comps Est $282k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 5 bedroom 2.5 baths located in Freeman Ranch. This 2 story home offers plenty of storage and space. This home has many upgrades including granite countertops and upgraded flooring. Spacious Master suite located on the first floor. Large Game room located upstairs plus 4 very spacious bedrooms. Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• 5,128 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Freeman Ranch Homeowners association; Annual association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2019; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Other lot features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 12); Four additional bedrooms on the second floor (14 x 10, 14 x 10, 16 x 12, 13 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Gas heating available; Central air conditioning with heat pump
• Interior features: 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-423/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (2.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,322
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: 4.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Elm Patch Dr	0.04mi	5/2.5	2,663 (+3%)	1mo	$300,000	$113	92
1018 Texas Timbers Dr	0.26mi	5/2.5	2,586 (0%)	1mo	$329,900	$128	87
1017 Misty Patch Dr	0.15mi	5/2.5	2,586 (0%)	10mo	$270,000	$104	85
405 Elaine Valley Dr	0.66mi	5/2.5	2,586 (0%)	1mo	$280,000	$108	68
5707 Blue Grama Dr	0.70mi	5/3.0	2,439 (-6%)	21mo	$358,990	$147	38
5734 Quest Valley Dr	0.70mi	5/3.0	2,439 (-6%)	22mo	$359,990	$148	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-58,650
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-87,149
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$736 /mo · $8,837/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,078

Max offer price $288,769

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $48	+0% $-35	+5% $-119	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-275	-5% $-155	+0% $-35	+5% $85	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $40	base $-35	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	16d	1	1.44mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	4d	1	1.45mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.47mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $295,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $305,000 Active 333-char remark
15. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus Sold 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful 5 bedroom 2.5 baths located in Freeman Ranch. This 2 story home offers plenty of storage and space. This home has many upgrades including granite countertops and upgraded flooring. Spacious Master suite located on the first floor. Large Game room located upstairs plus 4 very spacious bedrooms. Make your appointment today!

16. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful 5 bedroom 2.5 baths located in Freeman Ranch. This 2 story home offers plenty of storage and space. This home has many upgrades including granite countertops and upgraded flooring. Spacious Master suite located on the first floor. Large Game room located upstairs plus 4 very spacious bedrooms. Make your appointment today!

17. 2022-01-24
    status Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful 5 bedroom 2.5 baths located in Freeman Ranch. This 2 story home offers plenty of storage and space. This home has many upgrades including granite countertops and upgraded flooring. Spacious Master suite located on the first floor. Large Game room located upstairs plus 4 very spacious bedrooms. Make your appointment today!

18. 2022-01-15
    status Option Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful 5 bedroom 2.5 baths located in Freeman Ranch. This 2 story home offers plenty of storage and space. This home has many upgrades including granite countertops and upgraded flooring. Spacious Master suite located on the first floor. Large Game room located upstairs plus 4 very spacious bedrooms. Make your appointment today!

19. 2022-01-13
    status Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful 5 bedroom 2.5 baths located in Freeman Ranch. This 2 story home offers plenty of storage and space. This home has many upgrades including granite countertops and upgraded flooring. Spacious Master suite located on the first floor. Large Game room located upstairs plus 4 very spacious bedrooms. Make your appointment today!

20. 2021-12-29
    status Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful 5 bedroom 2.5 baths located in Freeman Ranch. This 2 story home offers plenty of storage and space. This home has many upgrades including granite countertops and upgraded flooring. Spacious Master suite located on the first floor. Large Game room located upstairs plus 4 very spacious bedrooms. Make your appointment today!

21. 2021-12-25
    status Option Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful 5 bedroom 2.5 baths located in Freeman Ranch. This 2 story home offers plenty of storage and space. This home has many upgrades including granite countertops and upgraded flooring. Spacious Master suite located on the first floor. Large Game room located upstairs plus 4 very spacious bedrooms. Make your appointment today!

22. 2021-12-21
    listed $295,000 Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful 5 bedroom 2.5 baths located in Freeman Ranch. This 2 story home offers plenty of storage and space. This home has many upgrades including granite countertops and upgraded flooring. Spacious Master suite located on the first floor. Large Game room located upstairs plus 4 very spacious bedrooms. Make your appointment today!

23. 2020-06-19
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Space and storage abound in the beautiful Driftwood plan offered at Freeman Ranch. Inside this 2-story home with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, you will find over $10,000 in upgrades including a full suite of kitchen appliances, granite countertops and designer flooring. The Driftwood showcases an open floor plan featuring a spacious family room and master suite downstairs, a large game room plus four additional bedrooms upstairs, as well as a fenced backyard and front yard landscaping.

24. 2020-05-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Space and storage abound in the beautiful Driftwood plan offered at Freeman Ranch. Inside this 2-story home with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, you will find over $10,000 in upgrades including a full suite of kitchen appliances, granite countertops and designer flooring. The Driftwood showcases an open floor plan featuring a spacious family room and master suite downstairs, a large game room plus four additional bedrooms upstairs, as well as a fenced backyard and front yard landscaping.

25. 2020-01-28
    price $232,900

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Space and storage abound in the beautiful Driftwood plan offered at Freeman Ranch. Inside this 2-story home with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, you will find over $10,000 in upgrades including a full suite of kitchen appliances, granite countertops and designer flooring. The Driftwood showcases an open floor plan featuring a spacious family room and master suite downstairs, a large game room plus four additional bedrooms upstairs, as well as a fenced backyard and front yard landscaping.

26. 2019-11-27
    price $230,900

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Space and storage abound in the beautiful Driftwood plan offered at Freeman Ranch. Inside this 2-story home with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, you will find over $10,000 in upgrades including a full suite of kitchen appliances, granite countertops and designer flooring. The Driftwood showcases an open floor plan featuring a spacious family room and master suite downstairs, a large game room plus four additional bedrooms upstairs, as well as a fenced backyard and front yard landscaping.

27. 2019-11-15
    listed $228,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Space and storage abound in the beautiful Driftwood plan offered at Freeman Ranch. Inside this 2-story home with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, you will find over $10,000 in upgrades including a full suite of kitchen appliances, granite countertops and designer flooring. The Driftwood showcases an open floor plan featuring a spacious family room and master suite downstairs, a large game room plus four additional bedrooms upstairs, as well as a fenced backyard and front yard landscaping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,837 · $736/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,837 · $736/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$8,837
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,912
• − Management: −$2,912
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$5,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,235
• After-tax cash flow: $812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+28.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $29,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-01-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-12-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-21 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2020-06-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-01-28 Price Changed $232,900 HARMLS
• 2019-11-27 Price Changed $230,900 HARMLS
• 2019-11-15 Listed $228,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+79.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,837 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.