12514 Lovers Ln · Riverview, FL 33579

$283,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1995

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home nestled on a peaceful 1-acre lot. Completely remodeled just three years ago, this property combines modern upgrades with the space and freedom you& apos; ve been looking for. Step inside to discover a bright and open floor plan featuring updated finishes, spacious living areas, and a well-appointed kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat, while the additional bedrooms provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the full acre of land offers endless opportunities. Whether you dream of gardening, raising animals, storing recreational veh

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Room to spread out
• Updated finishes

Tags

• UPDATED FINISHES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• FULL ACRE OF LAND
• ROOM TO SPREAD OUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($800/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $283k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,423 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.01%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-26,513
• Equity at exit: $62,637

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-16,262
• Equity at exit: $61,052

Cash invested: $79,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $283,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,750
• Closing costs: $8,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12111 Anderson Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,400	$1.85	24d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $283,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 695-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $283,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,349 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,382/yr (+$115/mo · 143.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,852
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$1,415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − Depreciation: −$8,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,147
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$995
• After-tax cash flow: $1,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+512.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $283,000 FSBO.com
• 2002-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $81,500 Public Records
• 1996-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $46,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.