Columbia Plan · Ellenton, FL 34221

$371,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $387,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (new construction, Columbia plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 9032 Bay Leaf Dr, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named Columbia (new construction plan); Total living area approximately 2389

🏗️ New construction. The $371,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $387,018.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $372k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,218/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $321,759 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,018
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8506 Sea Ray Run	0.11mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	11mo	$384,000	$161	86
8816 Clear View St	0.29mi	5/3.0	2,447 (+2%)	0mo	$375,000	$153	80
8510 Sea Ray Run	0.11mi	5/2.5	2,215 (-7%)	10mo	$350,000	$158	75
8449 Sea Ray Run	0.12mi	5/2.5	2,215 (-7%)	10mo	$359,000	$162	74
8824 Clear View St	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-5%)	1mo	$357,160	$158	71
8813 Clear View St	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-5%)	1mo	$374,000	$165	71
8448 Sea Ray Run	0.10mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+8%)	10mo	$412,000	$160	66
8530 Sea Ray Run	0.15mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+8%)	9mo	$377,400	$146	66
9432 Bella Mar Trl	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,045 (-14%)	1mo	$390,000	$191	55
9423 Bella Mar Trl	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,045 (-14%)	4mo	$415,000	$203	51
9013 Sandy Shores St	0.48mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,699 (+13%)	2mo	$535,000	$198	45
7441 Sea Manatee St	0.60mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,689 (+13%)	3mo	$530,000	$197	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-80,546
• Equity at exit: $57,706

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-117,265
• Equity at exit: $33,462

Cash invested: $108,365 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,030
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$484 /mo · $5,805/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,386

Max offer price $367,816

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,754
• Closing costs: $11,611
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	0.10mi
8438 Blue Wave Ln Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	23d	1	0.13mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	23d	1	0.14mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	10d	1	0.16mi
8818 Gulf Shore Ter Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,250	$0.98	3d	1	0.23mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.33mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	1d	32	0.40mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	23d	1	0.84mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	0.96mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	1.14mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	3d	1	1.31mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	23d	1	1.34mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	3d	1	1.37mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	23d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $371,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $371,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $371,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $371,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $371,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $371,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $371,900 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $387,900 Active 601 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $387,900 Active 600 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $387,900 Active 599 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $387,900 Active 595 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $387,900 Active 594 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $387,900 Active 593 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $387,900 Active 592 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,679
• − Property taxes: −$5,805
• − Insurance: −$1,935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,089
• − Management: −$3,089
• − Depreciation: −$11,259
• Taxable loss: −$8,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,979
• After-tax cash flow: $386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations and repairs across all systems and areas, with major issues in the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, flooring, interior walls, windows, foundation, HVAC, and landscaping. Significant updates are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms
• Major roof — No photos of the roof
• Major exterior — No photos of the exterior
• Major flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major windows — No photos of the windows
• Major foundation/structure — No photos of the foundation/structure
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can significantly enhance the home's appeal
• Resale New flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and modern
• Resale Replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and curb appeal
• Both New HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen · No photos of the kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No photos of the roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No photos of the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos of the flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No photos of the windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · No photos of the foundation/structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can significantly enhance the home's appeal ↑
• Resale New flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and modern ↑
• Resale Replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Both New HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B