18217 Aquasco Rd · Baden, MD 20613

$245,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1968 0.45 ac lot $227/sqft · 40% below area Est $411k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Being sold in AS-IS CONDITION. Home failed septic inspection test, seller will credit the buyer the cost to replace the septic at settlement.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#389 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $245k implies a 851% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,633
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -40.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $910
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $53,061
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20613

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,667/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,037

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Being sold in AS-IS CONDITION. Home failed septic inspection test, seller will credit the buyer the cost to replace the septic at settlement.

2. 2026-04-29
   status Active 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Being sold in AS-IS CONDITION. Home failed septic inspection test, seller will credit the buyer the cost to replace the septic at settlement.

3. 2026-04-16
   historical 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Being sold in AS-IS CONDITION. Home failed septic inspection test, seller will credit the buyer the cost to replace the septic at settlement.

4. 2026-03-19
   status Active 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Being sold in AS-IS CONDITION. Home failed septic inspection test, seller will credit the buyer the cost to replace the septic at settlement.

5. 2026-02-20
   status Pending 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Being sold in AS-IS CONDITION. Home failed septic inspection test, seller will credit the buyer the cost to replace the septic at settlement.

6. 2026-02-16
   listed $245,000 Active 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Being sold in AS-IS CONDITION. Home failed septic inspection test, seller will credit the buyer the cost to replace the septic at settlement.

7. 1973-05-08
   soldstatus $25,750
8. 1968-02-20
   soldstatus $16,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,669 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,667
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,730
• − Management: −$2,730
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $3,926
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$942
• After-tax cash flow: $6,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baden

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #21151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baden, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• City population: 15,923
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 17,590
• Household income: $151,422
• Rent vs Own: 6.0% rent · 94.0% own

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.19%
• Current HPI: 247.5504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1362.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $245,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1973-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $25,750 Public Records
• 1968-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $16,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,667 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.