4898 denbigh · McKee City, NJ 08330

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1984 $150/sqft · at area comps Est $261k · at est. $153/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * * * BIG PRICE DROP * * * * WILL NOW BE SOLD " AS IS CONDITION !!!!OAKCREST ESTATE!!! FOUR FULL SIZE BEDROOMS WITH 2 FULL BATHROOMS, GREAT SCHOOLS AND ALL THE SHOPPING YOU NEED REAL CLOSE BY. " SELLER HAS CONVERTED OVER TO ALL NATURAL GAS"

Key facts

• $153 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.0% in McKee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $250k implies a 410% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.61%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,996
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -4.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4922 Denbigh Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,720 (+3%)	2mo	$242,500	$141	84
4947 Cardigan Ct	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,760 (+5%)	16mo	$289,900	$165	69
5014 Laydon Ct	0.21mi	4/3.5	1,828 (+9%)	2mo	$304,000	$166	67
5003 Cardiff Ct	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (+8%)	13mo	$245,000	$136	64
4952 Flintshire Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,868 (+12%)	13mo	$270,000	$145	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $157,113
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.38×
• Total profit: $446,548
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,597/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$153
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $469	-5% $398	+0% $327	+5% $256	+10% $186
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $217	+0% $327	+5% $437	+10% $547
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $391	base $327	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2604 Dogwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	3.0	1.5	1628	$2,580	$1.58	13d	1	1.03mi
2604 Dogwood Ct #43 Mays Landing, NJ	3.0	1.5	1628	$2,580	$1.58	13d	1	1.03mi
2609 Dogwood Ct #52 Mays Landing, NJ	3.0	1.5	1628	$2,200	$1.35	13d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $153 · $1,836/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    price $250,000 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    * * * * * BIG PRICE DROP * * * * WILL NOW BE SOLD " AS IS CONDITION !!!!OAKCREST ESTATE!!! FOUR FULL SIZE BEDROOMS WITH 2 FULL BATHROOMS, GREAT SCHOOLS AND ALL THE SHOPPING YOU NEED REAL CLOSE BY. " SELLER HAS CONVERTED OVER TO ALL NATURAL GAS"

18. 2026-03-10
    listed $270,000 Active 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    * * * * * BIG PRICE DROP * * * * WILL NOW BE SOLD " AS IS CONDITION !!!!OAKCREST ESTATE!!! FOUR FULL SIZE BEDROOMS WITH 2 FULL BATHROOMS, GREAT SCHOOLS AND ALL THE SHOPPING YOU NEED REAL CLOSE BY. " SELLER HAS CONVERTED OVER TO ALL NATURAL GAS"

19. 2015-10-15
    soldstatus $49,000 Sold 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Large Four bedroom, one and a half bath, townhouse with 1672 square feet of living space. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

20. 2015-10-06
    historical Under Contract 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Large Four bedroom, one and a half bath, townhouse with 1672 square feet of living space. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

21. 2015-09-07
    listed $50,000 Active 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Large Four bedroom, one and a half bath, townhouse with 1672 square feet of living space. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

22. 2007-12-14
    soldstatus $180,000
23. 2007-08-06
    soldstatus $176,000
24. 2007-08-03
    historical
25. 2007-04-25
    listed $174,000
26. 1996-03-29
    soldstatus $67,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,597 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,911 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,314/yr (+$109/mo · 36.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,597
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − HOA: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $47
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11
• After-tax cash flow: $3,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — McKee City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+270.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $250,000 SJSRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $270,000 SJSRMLS
• 2015-10-15 Sold (MLS) $49,000 SJSRMLS
• 2015-10-06 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2015-09-07 Listed $50,000 SJSRMLS
• 2007-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-06 Sold (MLS) $176,000 SJSRMLS
• 2007-08-03 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2007-04-25 Listed $174,000 SJSRMLS
• 1996-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,597 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.