1120 Cherry Creek Dr · Shepherd, TX 77371

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 315 Days on market

Built 1974 1.00 ac lot $132/sqft · 11% below area Est $135k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great countryside property, offer 2.73 acres with an old cottage.Realize your dream country home at this location just minutes from I-69 N.

Key facts

• Old cottage
• 2.73 acres
• Minutes from i-69 n

Tags

• 2.73 ACRES
• OLD COTTAGE
• MINUTES FROM I-69 N

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.4% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $198 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 315 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 315 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.53%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,034
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -11.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $9,069
• Equity at exit: $35,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $39,704
• Equity at exit: $43,882

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 315 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 310 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 306 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 305 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 304 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 301 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 300 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 299 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $120,000 Active 298 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,000 Active 298 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Active 297 DOM
16. 2026-01-23
    price $178,000 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Great countryside property, offer 2.73 acres with an old cottage.Realize your dream country home at this location just minutes from I-69 N.

17. 2025-08-07
    listed $195,000 Active 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Great countryside property, offer 2.73 acres with an old cottage.Realize your dream country home at this location just minutes from I-69 N.

18. 2015-07-08
    soldstatus
19. 2015-06-15
    status Pending
20. 2015-06-14
    historical
21. 2015-04-06
    price $17,900
22. 2015-03-03
    listed $21,900 Active
23. 2015-01-18
    historical
24. 2014-12-26
    price $18,400
25. 2014-11-08
    listed $19,700 Active
26. 2000-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,470 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$726/yr (+$60/mo · 49.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $280
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$67
• After-tax cash flow: $2,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,857
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9016
• State rank: #770 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+803.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $178,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2015-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-04-06 Price Changed $17,900 HARMLS
• 2015-03-03 Listed $21,900 HARMLS
• 2015-01-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-12-26 Price Changed $18,400 HARMLS
• 2014-11-08 Listed $19,700 HARMLS
• 2000-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,470 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.