4020 Churn Creek Rd · Redding, CA 96002

$1,300,000

None bd · None ba · 6,672 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

9 plex single story 2 buildings (6 & 3). Rare to find 3 bedroom apts. with an attached garage with laundry hook ups . All units are 3 bedrooms/2 baths, approximately 1100 Sq Ft each. Split floor plan. .. main bedroom away from the other two. Central Heat & Cooling. Most of the Rents are below market. About half of the Apts have laminate flooring. These are very well cared for units. Several long term tenants. Square Footages are approximate.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1977
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned garage parking; 1-car garage
• Home design: Residential income property
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Corner location at Churn Creek Rd and Loma Vista; 0.9-acre lot

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Natural gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Has heating and cooling; Natural gas forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a multifamily listed at $1.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.30M).
• Recommended offer: $1.28M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $14,704/mo this rent would consume 241% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1026% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $442k; list at $1.30M implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,280,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.04%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $5,220
• Equity at exit: $193,834

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $236,750
• Equity at exit: $112,400

Cash invested: $364,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96002

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 66.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,704 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,817
• Tax from tax record: −$604 /mo · $7,248/yr
• Insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,088
• Net cashflow: $3,653

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,080

Max offer price $1,300,000

Occupancy floor 70%

9-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 9× units	3	2	$14,706
Total (9 units)			$14,704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $325,000
• Closing costs: $39,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    status $1,300,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $1,300,000 Active
18. 2026-04-08
    listed $1,300,000 Active
19. 2001-09-21
    soldstatus $442,000
20. 1990-06-13
    soldstatus $193,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,248 · $604/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,880 · $823/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,632/yr (+$219/mo · 36.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $176,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,820
• − Property taxes: −$7,248
• − Insurance: −$6,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,116
• − Management: −$14,116
• − Depreciation: −$37,818
• Taxable income: $23,830
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,719
• After-tax cash flow: $38,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,783
• Household income: $73,222
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1026.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.70%
• Current HPI: 319.713
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+571.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $1,300,000 SAOR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $1,300,000 SAOR
• 2001-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $442,000 Public Records
• 1990-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $193,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,248 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.