356 Lucas Rd · Browndell, TX 75931

$94,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 984 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1981 0.50 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER! Great Weekend Home Near Sam Rayburn Lake! Just miles from beautiful Sam Rayburn, this clean and well-kept 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath manufactured home is ready for your next getaway. The home features a durable metal roof cover, a spacious covered front porch complete with a relaxing swing, and a fully fenced yard with ample room to store recreational items. Located on a quiet dead-end street, you'll enjoy peace, privacy, and plenty of outdoor space to unwind and entertain. Don't miss your chance to see this weekend jewel — call today for a showing!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Sam rayburn lake
• Metal roof cover

Tags

• SAM RAYBURN LAKE
• METAL ROOF COVER
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Located on a 0.5-acre lot
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Metal roof

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl and wood flooring; Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,526 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, crime F.
• Brookeland ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #445 of 1,141 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,720 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.23%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $11,808
• Equity at exit: $33,773

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $40,847
• Equity at exit: $45,965

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75931

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $887 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $309/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $713

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $94,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $98,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $98,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $98,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2025-12-10
    listed $98,000 Active 572-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $309 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,737 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,427/yr (+$119/mo · 461.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$309
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$852
• − Management: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $83
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20
• After-tax cash flow: $1,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookeland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811520
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,145
• Composite: 42.74/100
• National rank: #6781
• State rank: #445 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Browndell

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1526
• US rank: #26081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Browndell, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,209

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Current HPI: 231.9835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $94,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $98,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $309 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.