1 Watkins Park Dr #1 · Kettering, MD 20774

$208,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,936 sqft · Townhouse public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $379k · 45% under $246/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 1970, this end unit townhome offers approximately 1936 finished square feet, three bedrooms, one full and one half bath, full basement and sits on an approximate 5109 sqft lot. This property is in need of full rehab, not habitable at this time.

Key facts

• $246 HOA
• Built 1970
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $246 per month

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: End of row townhouse/condominium; Assessor-provided year built
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $208k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.9% in Kettering — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#185 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 323 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,880 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.36%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $379,456
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
83 Watkins Park Dr #42	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,936 (0%)	2mo	$308,500	$159	92
12338 Chesterton Dr #47	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,936 (0%)	10mo	$340,000	$176	83
202 Old Enterprise Rd #156	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,936 (0%)	12mo	$350,000	$181	74
190 Old Enterprise Rd #146	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,936 (0%)	12mo	$345,000	$178	73
957 Saint Michaels Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,045 (+6%)	1mo	$400,000	$196	68
13008 Mears Ct	0.67mi	3/3.0	2,100 (+8%)	2mo	$478,000	$228	47
13103 Christie Pl	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,855 (-4%)	10mo	$462,500	$249	45
9 Braswell Ct	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-4%)	11mo	$455,900	$247	44
13002 Cannon Pl	0.63mi	3/3.0	2,100 (+8%)	22mo	$480,000	$229	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,466
• Equity at exit: $31,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $48,783
• Equity at exit: $17,984

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20774

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,919/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$246
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,215

Max offer price $208,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $524	-5% $465	+0% $406	+5% $347	+10% $288
Rent	-10% $190	-5% $298	+0% $406	+5% $514	+10% $622
Rate	-1.0pp $511	-0.5pp $459	base $406	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Old Enterprise Rd #120 Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	3.0	1936	$2,900	$1.50	5d	1	0.18mi
12505 Kingsview St Bowie, MD	2.0	1.0	1896	$1,650	$0.87	19d	1	0.88mi
3 Joyceton Ter Unit 1545957P Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	3.0	1894	$2,999	$1.58	17d	1	1.44mi
12 Joyceton Ter Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	3.5	1868	$800	$0.43	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $246 · $2,952/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $208,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $208,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $208,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $208,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 253-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $208,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,919 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,919 · $327/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$3,919
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,620
• − Management: −$2,620
• − HOA: −$2,952
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable income: $1,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$455
• After-tax cash flow: $4,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Kettering

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #8276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kettering, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 51,816
• Household income: $128,259
• Rent vs Own: 24.4% rent · 75.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 773.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% Two or more races 5% White 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 264.2372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+177.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $208,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-08-01 Listed — MRIS
• 1992-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $99,999 Public Records
• 1986-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,919 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.