298 Old Albany Post Rd · Lake Mohegan, NY 10524

$300,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1940 0.62 ac lot Est $552k · 46% under · waterfront $333/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing 298 Old Albany Post Road, a rare opportunity to live within the highly coveted Lake Celeste Association in Garrison, NY—one of the Hudson Valley’s most charming and exclusive lake communities. This private enclave offers residents an unmatched blend of natural beauty, outdoor recreation, and everyday convenience, all just one hour from New York City and moments from Metro-North. The centerpiece of the community is Lake Celeste, a picturesque, non-public lake reserved solely for association members and their guests. Here, you can enjoy swimming, fishing, kayaking, canoeing, paddleboarding, and peaceful boating on crystal-clear waters, with winter ice skating transform

Key facts

• Sandy beach area
• Tot lot
• Tennis courts

Tags

• NON-PUBLIC LAKE
• SANDY BEACH AREA
• BOAT RAMP
• TENNIS COURTS
• BASKETBALL COURT
• TOT LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Lake Celeste Association; Quarterly association fee; Association amenities include basketball court, clubhouse, park, playground, snow removal, tennis courts, and trash service

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Shingle siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; High ceilings; Partially finished basement with walk-out access; Pull-down attic stairs; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($267/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeland Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #149 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Van Cortlandtville School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 575 students, 32% FRL); Lakeland-Copper Beech Middle School (math 38% / reading 66%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 1,247 students, 29% FRL); Lakeland High School (math 94% / reading 77%, grade A, #366 of 1,100 statewide, top 33%, 942 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $300k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $551,648
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
169 Old Albany Post Rd	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-0%)	5mo	$428,400	$428	68
75 Ridgecrest Rd	1.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	873 (-13%)	13mo	$355,000	$407	28
40 Ridgecrest Rd	1.48mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,136 (+13%)	15mo	$350,000	$308	25
139 Nardin Rd	1.40mi	2/1.0	1,144 (+14%)	24mo	$395,000	$345	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,713
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-36,891
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10524

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$685 /mo · $8,221/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$333
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$743
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,509

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $107	+0% $22	+5% $-63	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-117	+0% $22	+5% $162	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $99	base $22	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $333 · $3,996/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   price $300,000
2. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-09
   listed $525,000 Active
4. 2000-02-07
   soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,221 · $685/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,221 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$8,221
• − Insurance: −$2,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,395
• − Management: −$3,395
• − HOA: −$3,996
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $1,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616620
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $91,965
• Composite: 59.2/100
• National rank: #944
• State rank: #149 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Mohegan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #417
• US rank: #7240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,361
• Population (ZIP): 4,298

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.97%
• Current HPI: 243.0481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+81.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,221 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.