514 Upper Cherrytown Rd · Kerhonkson, NY 12446

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1950 0.51 ac lot $302/sqft · 50% below area Est $280k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-Season Cottage -- 2 Hours from NYC Lovingly enjoyed by generations. This cozy two-bedroom, one-bath cottage is your perfect summer escape. Tucked along a quiet country road, it offers easy access to hiking trails, local farmers markets, and the best of upstate living. Unwind on the enclosed porch as you listen to the gentle stream flowing through the backyard. Host family gatherings, grill under the trees, or explore the nearby outdoors. The spacious shed out back comes with electricity and offers potential for a studio, guest space, or creative retreat. Move-in ready and full of possibilities--your peaceful getaway is waiting.

Key facts

• Quiet country road
• 3-season cottage
• Gentle stream

Tags

• 3-SEASON COTTAGE
• QUIET COUNTRY ROAD
• HIKING TRAILS
• LOCAL FARMERS MARKETS
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• GENTLE STREAM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.4% in Kerhonkson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $140k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.58%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,531
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -49.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $83,609
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $240,502
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12446

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,416 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,730/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $169,900 Active 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Charming 3-Season Cottage -- 2 Hours from NYC Lovingly enjoyed by generations. This cozy two-bedroom, one-bath cottage is your perfect summer escape. Tucked along a quiet country road, it offers easy access to hiking trails, local farmers markets, and the best of upstate living. Unwind on the enclosed porch as you listen to the gentle stream flowing through the backyard. Host family gatherings, grill under the trees, or explore the nearby outdoors. The spacious shed out back comes with electricity and offers potential for a studio, guest space, or creative retreat. Move-in ready and full of possibilities--your peaceful getaway is waiting.

17. 2025-08-06
    price $169,900
18. 2025-07-08
    price $199,900
19. 2025-06-20
    listed $229,900 Active
20. 2005-10-03
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,730 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,047 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$317/yr (+$26/mo · 18.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,730
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$207
• After-tax cash flow: $1,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rondout Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,408
• Composite: 39.5/100
• National rank: #3949
• State rank: #447 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kerhonkson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #552
• US rank: #9921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,232
• Population (ZIP): 5,232

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.32%
• Current HPI: 380.6732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+385.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $169,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $169,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $199,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $229,900 HVCRMLS
• 2005-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,730 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.