407 Holden Ave · Henning, MN 56551

$129,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 908 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1940 4,965 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-kept 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located in a peaceful area of Henning. Conveniently situated near uptown with access via a paved alley. This home features central air and natural gas for year-round comfort. The property includes a 20 x 24 insulated heated garage, perfect for storage or a workshop. The partial basement offers a shower and laundry area for added functionality. Inside, you’ll find a spacious entryway and a bonus office space—ideal for working from home or extra storage.

Key facts

• Insulated garage
• Laundry area
• Partial basement

Tags

• PEACEFUL AREA
• CENTRAL AIR
• NATURAL GAS
• INSULATED GARAGE
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• LAUNDRY AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 1-car garage (20 x 24, 16' door width, 6' door height)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric with 100 amp service and circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One level; Entry/main living on main level
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Built area includes finished above-ground area and additional below-ground space
• Exterior features: City street frontage; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#262 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Henning Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #128 of 467 in MN (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Henning Elementary (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #320 of 857 statewide, top 41%, 224 students, 54% FRL); Henning Secondary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #111 of 471 statewide, top 26%, 158 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 29% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 140 units permitted in Otter Tail County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $130k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,340 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $11,839
• Equity at exit: $63,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $48,442
• Equity at exit: $102,831

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56551

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,040

Max offer price $105,272

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-103	+0% $-139	+5% $-176	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-174	+0% $-139	+5% $-105	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-106	base $-139	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 506-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   historical Contingent - Inspection 506-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $129,900 Active 506-char remark
4. 2006-06-22
   soldstatus $65,900
5. 2003-06-17
   listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,034 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$18/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$829
• − Management: −$829
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$4,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$969
• After-tax cash flow: $-704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henning Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2713860
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,860
• Composite: 54.06/100
• National rank: #2990
• State rank: #128 of 467 in MN

Livability — Henning

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #262
• US rank: #5766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henning, MN
• City population: 2,343
• Population (ZIP): 2,343

Population outlook (Otter Tail County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,183 people
• By 2030: 58,267 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 57,999 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 57,183 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 57,638 · -0.9%
• By 2100: 54,697 · -6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 23% Romanian 5% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otter Tail

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.2) · D 32.1% · R 66.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.3pp toward R · 2008: -12.9pp · 2024: -34.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.2 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+35.9 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+12.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Current HPI: 228.9252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+116.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $65,900 Public Records
• 2003-06-17 Listed $59,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,034 · +102.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.