1878 W Dandelion Ln Unit DA1878 · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is waiting for you to move in! This comfortable home features premium entry doors, a modern bathroom, as well as new brand name appliances. In the community, enjoy with your friends and family all the amenities we have to offer such as a picnic area / pavilion / grill, a swimming pool, and a clubhouse. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool
• Modern bathroom

Tags

• PREMIUM ENTRY DOORS
• MODERN BATHROOM
• NEW BRAND NAME APPLIANCES
• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $50,100

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec home, plan 93286; Active listing
• Exterior features: Located at 1878 W Dandelion Ln, Tucson, AZ 85705

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (1,056 total living area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $773 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 6.1% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,415/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 4240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.41%
• DSCR: 3.95
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,072
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1924 W Desert Broom Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	1mo	$161,500	$175	68
4452 N Obetka Ave	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,079 (+2%)	5mo	$87,000	$81	61
4439 N Old Romero Rd #49	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+9%)	11mo	$45,000	$39	55
1735 W Seabrooke Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	8mo	$215,000	$204	54
2211 W Wetmore Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	924 (-12%)	4mo	$150,000	$162	48
1717 W Reina Cir	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+6%)	21mo	$130,000	$116	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $37,437
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $81,543
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,415 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4213 N Romero Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,045	$1.27	43d	5	0.16mi
1865 W La Osa St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,450	$1.77	43d	1	0.26mi
1501 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	43d	1	0.54mi
4111 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1131	$1,625	$1.44	23d	3	0.62mi
1700 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$1,099	$1.78	1d	25	0.62mi
1357 W Talisman St Tucson, AZ	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	23d	1	0.69mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$1,084	$1.73	43d	4	0.75mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1215-11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	3d	1	0.85mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-01 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	43d	1	0.85mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-04 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	15d	1	0.85mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	3d	1	0.85mi
4861 N River Vista Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	3d	1	0.93mi
1448 W Kilburn St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	43d	1	0.97mi
1132 W Knox Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1322	$1,849	$1.40	43d	1	0.97mi
4751 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	43d	1	0.99mi
1435 W Kilburn St Apt 2102 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1202	$1,495	$1.24	43d	1	1.03mi
4030 N Fairview Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	43d	1	1.15mi
5021 N Kevy Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	43d	1	1.20mi
5077 N Fortune Teller Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1370	$1,875	$1.37	17d	1	1.21mi
5132 Prairie Clover Trl Tucson, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1604	$1,897	$1.18	1d	13	1.28mi
822 W Thurber Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	43d	1	1.32mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,408	$1.50	43d	1	1.37mi
1021 W Edgewater Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1431	$1,940	$1.36	43d	1	1.38mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 7 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1026	$2,200	$2.14	20d	1	1.44mi
1100 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,250	$1.90	1d	1	1.44mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 14 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,450	$2.06	1d	1	1.45mi
1925 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,076	$1.98	1d	32	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $9,021
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,165
• After-tax cash flow: $7,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a clean, well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on its excellent condition and curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add a small front porch — Can increase both resale and rental value by adding a welcoming feature to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — Can increase both resale and rental value by adding a welcoming feature to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flowing Wells Unified District (4405)
• NCES district ID: 0403010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,361
• Composite: 21.69/100
• National rank: #8271
• State rank: #143 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B