1541 Fairfield Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$299,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2004 0.28 ac lot $132/sqft · 22% below area Est $382k · 22% under $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully updated corner lot home offers a LARGER lot than most other homes in the neighborhood! This home features a bright and modern interior with fresh paint and luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main areas, complemented by plush carpet in the bedrooms and upstairs retreat. The kitchen has updated cabinetry, sleek granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, providing for a light and bright feel. Enjoy multiple spacious living areas, ideal for relaxation or hosting guests. The bedrooms are generously sized with ceiling fans and walk in closets! The primary suite includes a private bath with a large walk-in shower and a dual-sink vanity. You'll love the oversized laundry room with built-in shelving and hanging space and additional living on the second floor! Do not miss the expansive fully fenced backyard! All of this in a well-established neighborhood with nearby community amenities that include a community pool and playground!

Key facts

• Larger lot
• Updated cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LARGER LOT
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,651 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,351
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -21.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 Marlee Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,054 (-9%)	2mo	$300,000	$146	71
534 Tuscany Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,069 (-8%)	2mo	$344,989	$167	70
1913 Flaxen Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,194 (-3%)	1mo	$369,000	$168	70
1210 Haggetts Pond Rd	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,062 (-9%)	1mo	$300,999	$146	66
1106 Redcoat Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,389 (+6%)	2mo	$329,090	$138	63
1514 Flannagan Pond Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	2,042 (-10%)	3mo	$359,970	$176	62
2210 Walden Pond Blvd	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,370 (+5%)	2mo	$399,970	$169	60
2103 Martins Pond Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,044 (-10%)	1mo	$275,000	$135	55
104 Acadia Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,996 (-12%)	1mo	$294,900	$148	51
2009 Brackett Pond Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,952 (-14%)	1mo	$306,949	$157	50
221 Wolf Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,510 (+11%)	1mo	$320,000	$127	46
124 Antler Trl	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,994 (-12%)	1mo	$300,000	$150	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-73,194
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-105,543
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,479 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$569 /mo · $6,833/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,897

Max offer price $240,651

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-161	-5% $-246	+0% $-330	+5% $-415	+10% $-500
Rent	-10% $-526	-5% $-428	+0% $-330	+5% $-232	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-180	-0.5pp $-254	base $-330	+0.5pp $-408	+1.0pp $-487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	0d	1	0.09mi
2127 Pecan Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2113	$2,100	$0.99	45d	1	0.13mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	45d	1	0.18mi
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	20d	1	0.28mi
1408 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2543	$3,095	$1.22	45d	1	0.28mi
209 Chesapeake Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2950	$3,400	$1.15	45d	1	0.33mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	24d	1	0.36mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	45d	1	0.38mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	26d	1	0.42mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	6d	1	0.48mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	26d	1	0.55mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,590	$0.88	9d	1	0.57mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,801	$0.96	26d	1	0.57mi
236 Archer Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,300	$1.14	20d	1	0.63mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	9d	1	0.65mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	18d	1	0.65mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	45d	1	0.68mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2926	$2,725	$0.93	14d	1	0.69mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2926	$2,395	$0.82	45d	1	0.69mi
213 Long Prairie Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1964	$2,025	$1.03	18d	1	0.75mi
120 Garner Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2214	$2,500	$1.13	45d	1	0.77mi
2902 Hanscom St Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2657	$3,200	$1.20	45d	1	0.82mi
507 Thunder Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	0d	1	0.84mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Unit 1421 Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,500	$1.38	22d	1	0.86mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,600	$1.41	26d	1	0.86mi
501 Branch St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2130	$2,270	$1.07	0d	1	0.89mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	4d	1	0.92mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	0d	1	1.00mi
102 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,999	$1.20	9d	1	1.04mi
1410 Crossford Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2707	$2,650	$0.98	3d	1	1.08mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,191	$1.34	0d	1	1.09mi
110 Meadow Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,783	$0.97	0d	1	1.09mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	45d	1	1.11mi
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	1.11mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	26d	1	1.12mi
2121 Juniper Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,249	$1.16	4d	1	1.17mi
1025 Dunhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2273	$2,450	$1.08	3d	1	1.18mi
1124 Longhorn Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2093	$2,500	$1.19	26d	1	1.19mi
315 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2102	$2,085	$0.99	26d	1	1.21mi
204 Freedom Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,925	$1.21	3d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $299,000 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    This beautifully updated corner lot home offers a LARGER lot than most other homes in the neighborhood! This home features a bright and modern interior with fresh paint and luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main areas, complemented by plush carpet in the bedrooms and upstairs retreat. The kitchen has updated cabinetry, sleek granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, providing for a light and bright feel. Enjoy multiple spacious living areas, ideal for relaxation or hosting guests. The bedrooms are generously sized with ceiling fans and walk in closets! The primary suite includes a private bath with a large walk-in shower and a dual-sink vanity. You'll love the oversized laundry room with built-in shelving and hanging space and additional living on the second floor! Do not miss the expansive fully fenced backyard! All of this in a well-established neighborhood with nearby community amenities that include a community pool and playground!

17. 2026-02-25
    listed $310,000 Active 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    This beautifully updated corner lot home offers a LARGER lot than most other homes in the neighborhood! This home features a bright and modern interior with fresh paint and luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main areas, complemented by plush carpet in the bedrooms and upstairs retreat. The kitchen has updated cabinetry, sleek granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, providing for a light and bright feel. Enjoy multiple spacious living areas, ideal for relaxation or hosting guests. The bedrooms are generously sized with ceiling fans and walk in closets! The primary suite includes a private bath with a large walk-in shower and a dual-sink vanity. You'll love the oversized laundry room with built-in shelving and hanging space and additional living on the second floor! Do not miss the expansive fully fenced backyard! All of this in a well-established neighborhood with nearby community amenities that include a community pool and playground!

18. 2026-01-01
    historical
19. 2025-12-04
    price $360,000
20. 2025-09-08
    price $365,000
21. 2025-08-01
    listed $375,000 Active
22. 2013-06-12
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2013-05-09
    status Pending
24. 2013-05-01
    historical Active Contingent
25. 2013-04-15
    status Active
26. 2013-04-09
    historical
27. 2013-04-09
    listed $129,900 Active
28. 2013-02-02
    historical
29. 2012-12-03
    status Active
30. 2012-12-01
    historical
31. 2012-10-26
    status Active
32. 2012-10-26
    historical
33. 2012-10-09
    status Active
34. 2012-10-05
    historical
35. 2012-07-26
    price $139,000
36. 2012-05-29
    listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,833 · $569/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,833 · $569/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$6,833
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,380
• − Management: −$2,380
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$9,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,186
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $310,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $360,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $365,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $375,000 NTREIS
• 2013-06-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-05-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-05-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2013-04-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2013-04-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-04-09 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2013-02-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-12-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2012-12-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-10-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2012-10-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-10-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2012-10-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-07-26 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2012-05-29 Listed $149,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,833 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.