29807 King Rd · Golden Beach, MD 20659

$305,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $435k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is an Estate Sale, the Estate Administrator is a MD Realtor. The property is for sale As-Is Where-Is, No Repairs will be made. The roof, siding, windows, doors, bathrooms, and kitchen have all been updated in the past 10 years. HVAC is a hybrid system, Electric heating with oil back-up and electric cooling. The septic was pumped Feb 2025, deep well is less than 20 years old. The property is being cleaned out and is available for showing. Excellent property for first time buyers looking for immediate equity or for a fix and flip. Due to volume of phone calls, text first and I will return a call.

Key facts

• Siding updated
• Roof updated
• Kitchen updated

Tags

• ROOF UPDATED
• SIDING UPDATED
• WINDOWS UPDATED
• DOORS UPDATED
• BATHROOMS UPDATED
• KITCHEN UPDATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $305k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in Golden Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#384 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $305k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $435,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29845 Coolidge Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,871 (+1%)	5mo	$369,900	$198	85
29835 Coolidge Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,946 (+5%)	14mo	$315,331	$162	63
29936 Ronald Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+7%)	13mo	$374,900	$188	62
35836 Bay Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,953 (+5%)	9mo	$500,000	$256	60
40305 Beach Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,956 (+5%)	22mo	$720,000	$368	59
29713 Bruce Rd	0.28mi	3/3.0	1,920 (+3%)	21mo	$449,900	$234	58
40274 Waterview Dr	0.56mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,753 (-6%)	2mo	$660,000	$376	58
29939 Barger Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,712 (-8%)	17mo	$490,000	$286	55
29957 William Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,090 (+12%)	10mo	$470,000	$225	46
29799 Allen Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-15%)	11mo	$435,000	$274	45
29826 Jefferson Rd	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,084 (+12%)	24mo	$432,600	$208	43
40497 Waterview Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,052 (+10%)	12mo	$469,000	$229	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-22,611
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $14,969
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20659

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,668

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40508 Waterview Dr Mechanicsville, MD	3.0	2.5	2604	$3,200	$1.23	18d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 1985-07-30
   soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable income: $199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$48
• After-tax cash flow: $4,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Golden Beach

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #384
• US rank: #21033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Golden Beach, MD
• Population (ZIP): 23,918

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.41%
• Current HPI: 260.6298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1985-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $165 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.