6850 Downing Road #11 Plan · Medford, OR 97502

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 141 Days on market

Good condition $167/sqft · 228% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2025 Skyline Ridgewood 2 Bedrooms 2 Bathrooms Approx. 720 Square Feet 54' x 16' Vinyl Flooring Stove, Refrigerator & Dishwasher All Age Community Pet Friendly Great Location & Much More!

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Great location
• Pet friendly

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• PET FRIENDLY
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.61%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $36,567
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 227.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6850 Downing Rd Spc 7	0.15mi	2/1.0	784 (+9%)	1mo	$39,000	$50	73
6850 Downing Rd Spc 57	0.15mi	2/1.0	686 (-5%)	14mo	$43,500	$63	70
6850 Downing Rd Spc 29	0.15mi	2/1.0	784 (+9%)	8mo	$35,000	$45	68
6850 Downing Rd #45	0.15mi	2/1.0	810 (+12%)	14mo	$34,000	$42	57
380 W Gregory Rd Unit 9	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	696 (-3%)	15mo	$30,000	$43	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $8,753
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $50,196
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-01-29
    listed $119,900 Active 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    2025 Skyline Ridgewood 2 Bedrooms 2 Bathrooms Approx. 720 Square Feet 54' x 16' Vinyl Flooring Stove, Refrigerator & Dishwasher All Age Community Pet Friendly Great Location & Much More!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $3,186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$765
• After-tax cash flow: $4,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and clean interior. Simple updates like painting the exterior and replacing carpet can significantly enhance its value for resale or rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters, increasing both value types.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters, increasing both value types. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 650.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $119,900 Zillow