2511 12th St SW · Lehigh Acres, FL 33976

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · Land · 80 Days on market

Built 2025 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beauty !!! Faces South on an amazing street, and the lot next door is aval. as well so you can have two new beauties built. This is a paved road acting like a cul de sac . ------- Make certain you see the beauty of this street ---

Key facts

• New construction
• 10-foot ceilings
• Open kitchen

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• 10-FOOT CEILINGS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SOFT-CLOSE CUSTOM CABINETRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT DINING AREA
• DUAL OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Association includes road maintenance, street lights and trash; Non-gated community with street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Paved; Garage door opener; 2 covered spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; High-speed internet available; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level 1; Faces north; New construction
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; New construction
• Exterior features: Security/high impact doors; Open patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Room for pool; Rectangular lot; Public maintained road; South exposures

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Range; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Built-in features; Tray ceilings; Dual sinks; High ceilings; Living/dining room; Shower only; Separate shower; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedrooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (38.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 786 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $305k implies a 519% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,211 (38.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $140,568
• Equity at exit: $274,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $419,374
• Equity at exit: $592,548

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33976

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 786
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $867/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,277

Max offer price $249,898

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1423 Caywood Cir S Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,376	$1.43	3d	1	0.44mi
28 Cosmopolitan Dr #13 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	973	$1,375	$1.41	14d	1	0.53mi
209 Punta Alta Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$1,950	$1.05	19d	1	0.54mi
10 Beth Stacey Blvd #206 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,100	$1.09	3d	1	0.54mi
111 Yellowtail Loop #3 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	23d	1	0.56mi
59 Camelot Gardens Blvd #110 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$1,800	$1.54	23d	1	0.60mi
2805 20th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,699	$1.48	2d	1	0.61mi
219 Beth Stacey Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	997	$1,300	$1.30	21d	1	0.64mi
2906 14th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,450	$1.57	23d	1	0.64mi
2909 15th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,800	$1.39	21d	1	0.67mi
1507 Markdale St E Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	1.0	997	$1,300	$1.30	3d	1	0.68mi
2602 24th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,800	$1.33	3d	1	0.70mi
2812 4th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1751	$1,856	$1.06	23d	1	0.71mi
312 Grovewood Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1325	$1,800	$1.36	23d	1	0.71mi
20699 Hazelnut Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,351	$1.50	23d	1	0.73mi
2916 7th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,900	$1.40	23d	1	0.75mi
9099 Aegean Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,499	$1.34	23d	1	0.75mi
18461 Copperhead Dr #431 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$3,995	$3.07	23d	1	0.76mi
18461 Copperhead Dr #436 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$3,495	$3.03	23d	1	0.76mi
18461 Copperhead Dr #421 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,895	$1.46	23d	1	0.76mi
20673 Hazelnut Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,099	$1.34	23d	1	0.78mi
9112 Aegean Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,600	$1.14	3d	1	0.79mi
9123 Aegean Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,474	$1.32	2d	1	0.80mi
18266 Minorea Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,650	$1.17	23d	1	0.80mi
18261 Minorea Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1402	$1,595	$1.14	3d	1	0.81mi
18261 Minorea Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	23d	1	0.81mi
18303 Gibraltar Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1203	$1,599	$1.33	23d	1	0.82mi
18303 Gibraltar Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1203	$1,549	$1.29	14d	1	0.82mi
9131 Aegean Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,574	$1.12	21d	1	0.82mi
9131 Aegean Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,574	$1.12	23d	1	0.82mi
18451 Copperhead Dr #522 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	23d	1	0.82mi
9137 Aegean Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,474	$1.32	23d	1	0.83mi
9137 Aegean Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,474	$1.32	3d	1	0.83mi
18321 Gibraltar Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1203	$1,675	$1.39	23d	1	0.86mi
18421 Copperhead Dr #222 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$1,700	$1.47	23d	1	0.86mi
1407 Juddale St E Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	1.0	997	$1,450	$1.45	3d	1	0.87mi
1405 Juddale St E Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1302	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	0.87mi
9161 Aegean Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,650	$1.47	13d	1	0.88mi
9177 Aegean Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1203	$1,549	$1.29	23d	1	0.89mi
18411 Copperhead Dr #346 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,695	$1.60	21d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $305,000
3. 2026-02-23
   listed $315,000 Active
4. 2026-01-30
   historical
5. 2025-09-02
   price $325,000
6. 2025-08-04
   listed $345,000 Active
7. 2023-03-16
   soldstatus $49,300
8. 2023-03-06
   soldstatus $24,650 Closed 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   Beauty !!! Faces South on an amazing street, and the lot next door is aval. as well so you can have two new beauties built. This is a paved road acting like a cul de sac . ------- Make certain you see the beauty of this street ---

9. 2023-02-20
   status Pending 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   Beauty !!! Faces South on an amazing street, and the lot next door is aval. as well so you can have two new beauties built. This is a paved road acting like a cul de sac . ------- Make certain you see the beauty of this street ---

10. 2023-02-20
    price $24,650 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Beauty !!! Faces South on an amazing street, and the lot next door is aval. as well so you can have two new beauties built. This is a paved road acting like a cul de sac . ------- Make certain you see the beauty of this street ---

11. 2023-01-27
    listed $25,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Beauty !!! Faces South on an amazing street, and the lot next door is aval. as well so you can have two new beauties built. This is a paved road acting like a cul de sac . ------- Make certain you see the beauty of this street ---

12. 2005-02-24
    soldstatus $44,500
13. 2005-02-17
    soldstatus $32,000
14. 2005-01-28
    soldstatus $44,500
15. 2005-01-13
    price $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $867 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,532 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,665/yr (+$139/mo · 192.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$867
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$9,378
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,251
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,277
• Household income: $72,679
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 18% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.77%
• Current HPI: 340.4255
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+577.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $305,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $315,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $325,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $345,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $49,300 Public Records
• 2023-03-06 Sold (MLS) $24,650 FORTMLS
• 2023-02-20 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2023-02-20 Price Changed $24,650 FORTMLS
• 2023-01-27 Listed $25,000 FORTMLS
• 2005-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records
• 2005-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-28 Sold (MLS) $44,500 FORTMLS
• 2005-01-13 Price Changed $45,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+25.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $867 · +92.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.