24213 Hemlock Circle Plan · Chelsea, MI 48118

$145,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 98 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering space, style, and modern comfort throughout. Designed with an amazing open floor plan, this home features a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The oversized kitchen is truly the heart of the home, showcasing a large, beautiful island, abundant cabinet storage, generous counter space, and modern appliances. Home chefs will appreciate the gas range with microwave above, making meal prep both efficient and enjoyable. The primary suite is privately situated at the end of the home, thoughtfully separated from the second and third bedrooms. This relaxing retreat features a spacious ensuite bath complete with a gorgeous walk-in shower with glass doors and a convenient linen closet. Throughout the home, you'll find quality finishes including full drywall, crown molding, and contemporary black hardware accents from door hinges and handles to faucets adding a sleek, modern touch. A bonus family room or den provides the perfect space for a home office, media room, or additional lounge area. Energy efficiency meets comfort with LED recessed lighting, dual-pane windows, central air conditioning, and a storage shed for added convenience. This beautiful home has it all and won t last long schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Oversized kitchen
• Gas range

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• LARGE BEAUTIFUL ISLAND
• ABUNDANT CABINET STORAGE
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• GAS RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.2% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#135 in MI, #3,301 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chelsea School District (town): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #59 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 996 units permitted in Washtenaw County in 2024 (492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washtenaw County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,855 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.36%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,937
• Equity at exit: $21,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $37,430
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,879 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48118

• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$182 /mo · $2,190/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $145,995

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,499
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-02-20
   listed $145,995 Active 1370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1370 chars)

   Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering space, style, and modern comfort throughout. Designed with an amazing open floor plan, this home features a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The oversized kitchen is truly the heart of the home, showcasing a large, beautiful island, abundant cabinet storage, generous counter space, and modern appliances. Home chefs will appreciate the gas range with microwave above, making meal prep both efficient and enjoyable. The primary suite is privately situated at the end of the home, thoughtfully separated from the second and third bedrooms. This relaxing retreat features a spacious ensuite bath complete with a gorgeous walk-in shower with glass doors and a convenient linen closet. Throughout the home, you'll find quality finishes including full drywall, crown molding, and contemporary black hardware accents from door hinges and handles to faucets adding a sleek, modern touch. A bonus family room or den provides the perfect space for a home office, media room, or additional lounge area. Energy efficiency meets comfort with LED recessed lighting, dual-pane windows, central air conditioning, and a storage shed for added convenience. This beautiful home has it all and won t last long schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$2,190
• − Insurance: −$4,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable income: $3,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$732
• After-tax cash flow: $4,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is in excellent condition with new finishes throughout, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves durability and adds value
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves durability and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chelsea School District
• NCES district ID: 2608940
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $75,362
• Composite: 49.34/100
• National rank: #2018
• State rank: #59 of 540 in MI

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #3301

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,088
• Population (ZIP): 13,088

Population outlook (Washtenaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 402,878 people
• By 2030: 424,104 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 464,633 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 504,728 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 614,463 · +52.5%
• By 2100: 676,181 · +67.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washtenaw

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.4) · D 71.0% · R 26.6% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.4 2020: D+46.6 2016: D+41.5 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.35%
• Current HPI: 174.8761
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $145,995 Zillow