Plan 1772 Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$243,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Covered back patio * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen breakfast bar * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Spacious great room * Loft * Kitchen USB charging port * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Walking paths * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses * Near beautiful lakes

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Gas range
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• GAS RANGE

🏗️ New construction. The $243,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,584.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-499 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,909 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.33%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,584
• List price: $243,995
• Delta: -16.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
277 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,696 (-4%)	4mo	$279,990	$165	86
332 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,696 (-4%)	4mo	$277,990	$164	85
321 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,968 (+11%)	5mo	$281,990	$143	67
345 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-13%)	6mo	$279,990	$182	65
416 Sandringham Loop	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,615 (-9%)	4mo	$275,990	$171	65
449 Sandringham Loop	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,952 (+10%)	8mo	$300,990	$154	64
181 Morett Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,032 (+15%)	5mo	$316,990	$156	61
424 Sandringham Loop	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-13%)	7mo	$283,490	$185	60
211 Morett Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,659 (-6%)	9mo	$298,990	$180	60
543 Sandringham Loop	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,034 (+15%)	5mo	$295,000	$145	59
449 Frogmore Loop	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (-9%)	5mo	$270,990	$169	58
221 Morett Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,032 (+15%)	11mo	$351,990	$173	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-84,625
• Equity at exit: $43,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-136,230
• Equity at exit: $25,211

Cash invested: $81,643 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,529
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,374/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,551

Max offer price $219,379

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-297	-5% $-398	+0% $-499	+5% $-600	+10% $-700
Rent	-10% $-651	-5% $-575	+0% $-499	+5% $-423	+10% $-347
Rate	-1.0pp $-352	-0.5pp $-425	base $-499	+0.5pp $-575	+1.0pp $-651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,896
• Closing costs: $8,748
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
176 Gerasa Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2064	$2,000	$0.97	12d	1	0.19mi
321 Sandringham Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$1,900	$0.77	5d	1	0.24mi
191 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$1,899	$0.92	44d	1	0.38mi
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,414	$0.97	13d	1	1.08mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	24d	1	1.27mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	24d	1	1.27mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	44d	1	1.27mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	17d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $243,995 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,995 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,995 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,995 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $243,995 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $243,995 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $243,995 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $243,995 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $243,995 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $243,995 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,995 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,995 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $243,995 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    price $243,995 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Covered back patio * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen breakfast bar * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Spacious great room * Loft * Kitchen USB charging port * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Walking paths * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses * Near beautiful lakes

15. 2026-04-17
    price $247,995 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Covered back patio * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen breakfast bar * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Spacious great room * Loft * Kitchen USB charging port * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Walking paths * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses * Near beautiful lakes

16. 2026-02-19
    price $252,995 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Covered back patio * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen breakfast bar * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Spacious great room * Loft * Kitchen USB charging port * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Walking paths * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses * Near beautiful lakes

17. 2026-01-15
    listed $262,995 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Covered back patio * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen breakfast bar * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Spacious great room * Loft * Kitchen USB charging port * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Walking paths * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses * Near beautiful lakes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,333
• − Property taxes: −$4,374
• − Insurance: −$1,458
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$8,482
• Taxable loss: −$11,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,713
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $243,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $247,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $252,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Listed $262,995 Zillow