4310 Greenbriar Dr · Bellmead, TX 76705

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1962 9,670 sqft lot Est $161k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4310 Greenbriar Dr in Waco, TX! This affordable 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with an additional bonus room (or office room) is packed with opportunity, space, and value. Whether you are a first-time homebuyer searching for an affordable place to call home or an investor looking for your next rental or flip project, this property offers endless potential at an unbeatable price. Step inside to find spacious living areas filled with natural light, generously sized bedrooms, washer and dryer connections, and flexible spaces perfect for a home office, playroom, hobby room, or extra storage. The functional kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space while the dining area provides room f

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Open green space
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• WASHER AND DRYER CONNECTIONS
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT OPTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession available 30–60 days or at closing/funding; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1962; One story
• Construction: Year built: 1962
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.222 acres); Subdivision: La Vista Acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms, including a primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (1 full, 1 half)
• Interior features: One-level layout; Two total rooms (living and dining areas); Living area of 1008

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.1% in Bellmead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#893 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• La Vega ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #680 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Vega El (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 659 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 79% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.50%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,280
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4309 Greenbriar	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,039 (+3%)	21mo	$165,900	$160	76
4317 Greenbriar Dr	0.04mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,020 (+1%)	23mo	$165,000	$162	72
4325 Blackwell Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,011 (+0%)	0mo	$210,000	$208	68
168 San Pedro St	0.25mi	3/2.0	900 (-11%)	5mo	$149,999	$167	64
4322 Concord Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,043 (+4%)	16mo	$149,000	$143	58
4312 Wheeler St	0.54mi	3/—	1,100 (+9%)	11mo	$75,000	$68	50
1124 Pawnee St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,095 (+9%)	15mo	$174,900	$160	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,411
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $29,034
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,681/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $446	-5% $412	+0% $378	+5% $344	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $250	-5% $314	+0% $378	+5% $442	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $409	base $378	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 Holmes St Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1328	$1,500	$1.13	14d	1	0.52mi
3604 Torrance St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,600	$1.34	22d	1	0.77mi
4307 Bellcrest St Bellmead, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	22d	1	0.86mi
1130 Lewis St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,450	$1.33	22d	1	1.06mi
1011 Kane St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,695	$1.38	44d	1	1.11mi
3925 S Fork Ranch Rd Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,995	$1.61	14d	1	1.12mi
4245 Meyers Ln Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	772	$1,175	$1.52	22d	1	1.50mi
4245 Meyers Ln Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	772	$1,745	$2.26	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $120,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-05-21
   listed $120,000 Active
7. 2026-04-16
   soldstatus
8. 2014-05-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,681
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$684
• After-tax cash flow: $3,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Vega ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826280
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,539
• Composite: 23.42/100
• National rank: #7892
• State rank: #680 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bellmead

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #16031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellmead, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 31,750
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,681 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.