3101 Pioneer Dr · East Niles, CA 93306

$149,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,117 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1957 4,791 sqft lot Est $273k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors! This fixer-upper is your next flip or buy-and-hold project you have been looking for! This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with over 1100 square feet features endless possibilities. You do not want to miss out on this opportunity. Make an offer today before it's gone!

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 12 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.65%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,548
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Hill St	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,102 (-1%)	1mo	$280,000	$254	88
3317 Center	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+4%)	2mo	$332,500	$287	69
3306 Center St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,198 (+7%)	3mo	$186,000	$155	68
900 Quantico Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,123 (+0%)	7mo	$205,000	$183	66
3112 Kentucky St	0.35mi	3/1.8	1,202 (+8%)	4mo	$289,900	$241	64
505 Larry St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+5%)	7mo	$280,000	$238	64
311 Ixtapa Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,091 (-2%)	4mo	$310,000	$284	62
203 Isla Del Sol Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,091 (-2%)	1mo	$305,000	$280	61
715 Normandy Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,079 (-3%)	6mo	$247,000	$229	58
507 Tulip St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (+8%)	2mo	$295,000	$244	56
504 Richards Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (+5%)	5mo	$290,000	$247	55
3607 Periwinkle Ct	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (+8%)	3mo	$275,000	$227	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,057
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $19,061
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,193

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3306 Gardenia Ave Apt B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	43d	1	0.24mi
3017 Potomac Ave Apt 10 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	746	$995	$1.33	43d	1	0.29mi
3017 Potomac Ave Apt 12 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	746	$995	$1.33	2d	1	0.29mi
3311 Camellia Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,925	$1.71	43d	1	0.30mi
460 Oswell St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,700	$1.28	2d	1	0.33mi
925 Pesante Rd Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	2d	1	0.47mi
930 Sterling Rd Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	848	$1,150	$1.36	14d	1	0.55mi
2703 Center St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	2d	1	0.59mi
1322 Vale St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1177	$2,100	$1.78	2d	1	0.66mi
2300 Lake St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1105	$1,650	$1.49	2d	1	1.07mi
820 Moore St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,600	$1.48	19d	1	1.17mi
2190 Monterey St Unit 9 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	10d	1	1.19mi
2124 Pacific St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	823	$1,395	$1.70	2d	1	1.29mi
2010 Larcus Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	3d	3	1.30mi
2010 Larcus Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,400	$1.75	21d	1	1.30mi
2010 Larcus Ave Unit 48 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	10d	1	1.30mi
2010 Larcus Ave Unit 33 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	1.30mi
2006 Kentucky St Apt 8 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,150	$1.38	2d	1	1.32mi
2006 Kentucky St Apt 48 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,150	$1.38	43d	1	1.32mi
2010 Larcus Ave Unit 13 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,200	$1.50	2d	1	1.33mi
4819 La Posta St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	788	$1,762	$2.24	2d	8	1.33mi
1603 Palm Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,900	$2.26	2d	1	1.45mi
1518 Palm Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	715	$1,100	$1.54	2d	1	1.45mi
720 Beverly Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-08-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-07
   listed $149,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,124 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$408
• After-tax cash flow: $3,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-19 Pending — GEMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $149,999 GEMLS

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,124 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.