669 Hands Creek Rd · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$1,695,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 1985 0.93 ac lot $1211/sqft · 8% below area Est $1849k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic Saltbox Retreat Welcome to 669 Hands Creek Road, a classic saltbox retreat tucked away in the coveted Northwest Woods of East Hampton. Perfectly positioned for both convenience and privacy, this property is just 8 minutes from Sunset Pizza & Spirits at Cedar Point Park, and less than 10 minutes to Northwest Harbor County Park for beach access, boating, and waterfront recreation. The restaurants, boutiques, and village charm of Main Street in East Hampton are just 5 miles away. Set on a shy acre of mature, beautifully landscaped grounds, this approximately 2,000 square foot home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths in a timeless saltbox design-an architectural style deeply rooted in East Hampton's heritage. The home's distinctive roofline and thoughtful layout invite natural light throughout the day, creating bright, airy living spaces that feel both welcoming and refined. Designed for seamless indoor-outdoor living, the property features a generously sized deck that wraps around a vinyl pool and pool house-an ideal setting for summer gatherings or quiet afternoons in complete privacy. The mature landscaping provides a serene backdrop and a sense of seclusion that makes Northwest Woods such a beloved enclave. Close enough to enjoy every convenience, yet far enough to feel like your own private escape, this property offers the best of Hamptons living-classic design, natural beauty, and effortless access to water, village, and dining.

Key facts

• Pool house
• Natural light
• Heated vinyl pool

Tags

• MATURE LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• HEATED VINYL POOL
• POOL HOUSE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED DECK
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($71k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.70M).
• Recommended offer: $1.54M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 7.8% in Northwest Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,327/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $475k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.54M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1000k; list at $1.70M implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,542,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.92%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,848,994
• List price: $1,695,000
• Delta: -8.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Three Mile Harbor Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	16mo	$1,597,000	$1,109	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $208,049
• Equity at exit: $252,730

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $1,151,524
• Equity at exit: $146,553

Cash invested: $474,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,889
• Tax from tax record: −$560 /mo · $6,724/yr
• Insurance: −$706
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,269
• Net cashflow: $5,903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,855

Max offer price $1,695,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,862	-5% $6,382	+0% $5,903	+5% $5,423	+10% $4,943
Rent	-10% $4,297	-5% $5,100	+0% $5,903	+5% $6,706	+10% $7,508
Rate	-1.0pp $6,756	-0.5pp $6,334	base $5,903	+0.5pp $5,463	+1.0pp $5,017

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $423,750
• Closing costs: $50,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	25d	1	0.96mi
11 Deer Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1300	$80,000	$61.54	25d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    listed $1,695,000 Active 1465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1465 chars)

    Classic Saltbox Retreat Welcome to 669 Hands Creek Road, a classic saltbox retreat tucked away in the coveted Northwest Woods of East Hampton. Perfectly positioned for both convenience and privacy, this property is just 8 minutes from Sunset Pizza & Spirits at Cedar Point Park, and less than 10 minutes to Northwest Harbor County Park for beach access, boating, and waterfront recreation. The restaurants, boutiques, and village charm of Main Street in East Hampton are just 5 miles away. Set on a shy acre of mature, beautifully landscaped grounds, this approximately 2,000 square foot home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths in a timeless saltbox design-an architectural style deeply rooted in East Hampton's heritage. The home's distinctive roofline and thoughtful layout invite natural light throughout the day, creating bright, airy living spaces that feel both welcoming and refined. Designed for seamless indoor-outdoor living, the property features a generously sized deck that wraps around a vinyl pool and pool house-an ideal setting for summer gatherings or quiet afternoons in complete privacy. The mature landscaping provides a serene backdrop and a sense of seclusion that makes Northwest Woods such a beloved enclave. Close enough to enjoy every convenience, yet far enough to feel like your own private escape, this property offers the best of Hamptons living-classic design, natural beauty, and effortless access to water, village, and dining.

16. 2015-07-07
    soldstatus $999,995
17. 1999-05-14
    soldstatus $320,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,724 · $560/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,685 · $1,474/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,961/yr (+$913/mo · 163.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $243,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$94,946
• − Property taxes: −$6,724
• − Insurance: −$8,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,514
• − Management: −$19,514
• − Depreciation: −$49,309
• Taxable income: $45,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,905
• After-tax cash flow: $59,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+429.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $1,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $999,995 Public Records
• 1999-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,724 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.