669 Hands Creek Rd · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$1,695,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition 0.93 ac lot $1211/sqft · 10% below area Est $1.876M · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic Saltbox Retreat Welcome to 669 Hands Creek Road, a classic saltbox retreat tucked away in the coveted Northwest Woods of East Hampton. Perfectly positioned for both convenience and privacy, this property is just 8 minutes from Sunset Pizza & Spirits at Cedar Point Park, and less than 10 minutes to Northwest Harbor County Park for beach access, boating, and waterfront recreation. The restaurants, boutiques, and village charm of Main Street in East Hampton are just 5 miles away. Set on a shy acre of mature, beautifully landscaped grounds, this approximately 2,000 square foot home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths in a timeless saltbox design-an architectural style deeply rooted in East Hampton's heritage. The home's distinctive roofline and thoughtful layout invite natural light throughout the day, creating bright, airy living spaces that feel both welcoming and refined. Designed for seamless indoor-outdoor living, the property features a generously sized deck that wraps around a vinyl pool and pool house-an ideal setting for summer gatherings or quiet afternoons in complete privacy. The mature landscaping provides a serene backdrop and a sense of seclusion that makes Northwest Woods such a beloved enclave. Close enough to enjoy every convenience, yet far enough to feel like your own private escape, this property offers the best of Hamptons living-classic design, natural beauty, and effortless access to water, village, and dining.

Key facts

• Pool house
• Natural light
• Heated vinyl pool

Tags

• MATURE LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• HEATED VINYL POOL
• POOL HOUSE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED DECK
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($72k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.70M).
• Recommended offer: $1.49M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 7.8% in Northwest Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M Marshall Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 51% FRL); East Hampton Middle School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 265 students, 42% FRL); East Hampton High School (math 94% / reading 98%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,015 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,398/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $475k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.49M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1000k; list at $1.70M implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,491,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.07%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,876,262
• List price: $1,695,000
• Delta: -9.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Wooded Oak Ln	2.16mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	1mo	$1,460,000	$1,043	64
16 Karin Dr	1.65mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	9mo	$1,250,000	$893	58
514 Pantigo Rd #16	1.87mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (+4%)	6mo	$1,250,000	$862	50
19 Gann Rd	1.92mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+3%)	16mo	$999,900	$696	47
236 Three Mi Hbr Hog Crk	1.76mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+7%)	9mo	$1,050,000	$700	46
12 Todd Dr	1.58mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+11%)	6mo	$1,450,000	$935	42
9 Clinton St	1.96mi	3/3.0	1,250 (-11%)	2mo	$1,087,500	$870	42
7 Wooded Oak Ln	2.11mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+11%)	4mo	$1,675,000	$1,081	41
12 Rivers Rd	1.64mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+9%)	13mo	$1,550,000	$1,017	40
55 Longwoods Ln	2.18mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+29%)	4mo	$2,175,000	$1,208	37
514 Pantigo Rd #20	1.87mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+7%)	14mo	$906,000	$604	36
121 Mulford Ave	1.61mi	3/2.5	1,584 (+13%)	11mo	$1,565,000	$988	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $212,034
• Equity at exit: $252,730

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $1,161,364
• Equity at exit: $146,553

Cash invested: $474,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $1,550,000 ($996/sqft)
• Median days on market: 173 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +34.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,889
• Tax from tax record: −$560 /mo · $6,724/yr
• Insurance: −$706
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,284
• Net cashflow: $5,959

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,855

Max offer price $1,695,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,919	-5% $6,439	+0% $5,959	+5% $5,479	+10% $5,000
Rent	-10% $4,348	-5% $5,154	+0% $5,959	+5% $6,765	+10% $7,571
Rate	-1.0pp $6,813	-0.5pp $6,390	base $5,959	+0.5pp $5,520	+1.0pp $5,073

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $423,750
• Closing costs: $50,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	73d	1	0.96mi
11 Deer Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1300	$80,000	$61.54	73d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 149 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 148 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 147 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 146 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 145 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 144 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 143 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 142 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 141 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 140 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 138 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 137 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 136 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 135 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 134 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 133 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 132 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 131 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 130 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 129 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 128 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 127 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 123 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 119 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 118 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 116 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 114 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 113 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 110 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 109 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 108 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,695,000 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,724 · $560/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,685 · $1,474/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,961/yr (+$913/mo · 163.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $244,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$94,946
• − Property taxes: −$6,724
• − Insurance: −$8,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,582
• − Management: −$19,582
• − Depreciation: −$49,309
• Taxable income: $46,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,078
• After-tax cash flow: $60,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,000–$21,000 screening

This classic saltbox retreat is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. The property offers a pool and deck area, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring tile

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and pool maintenance — A well-maintained pool and landscaping can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale HVAC system inspection — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern for potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 68/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary John M Marshall Elementary School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle East Hampton Middle School C NY #280/729 Nat'l #3,585/14,009 High East Hampton High School A+ NY #71/1,100 Nat'l #103/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+429.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $1,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $999,995 Public Records
• 1999-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,724 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.