C3252 Plan · Odessa, TX 79762

$129,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,497 sqft · Manufactured · 766 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country style is your style? This is the home for you! With 3 bedrooms and two baths and huge open concept. .Price includes Delivery, set, air conditioner, skirting, caliche pad and steps. Don't miss this spacious 3 bedroom 32 wide home with a gorgeous Island Kitchen, separate tub and shower in the master bath and walk-in closets! Only $129,999 until the lot model is gone!

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Walk-in closets
• Listed 765 days

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 766 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 766 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.92%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,748
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $38,299
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $129,999

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	13d	18	0.67mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	43d	1	0.68mi
1119 E 51st St Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1169	$1,500	$1.28	13d	1	0.72mi
3800 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	21d	1	0.83mi
815 W 40th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	43d	1	0.89mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	43d	1	0.93mi
1311 E 52nd St Unit 1 Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,950	$1.38	21d	1	0.93mi
6015 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1140	$3,500	$3.07	43d	1	1.00mi
1308 Alpine St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,195	$1.22	13d	1	1.02mi
237 Orchard Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,000	$1.13	13d	1	1.04mi
3624 Walnut Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1488	$1,950	$1.31	43d	1	1.07mi
3509 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,700	$1.40	13d	1	1.08mi
1212 E Century Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1359	$1,300	$0.96	21d	1	1.19mi
1529 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,200	$1.73	43d	1	1.21mi
3107 Merrill Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1212	$1,800	$1.49	43d	1	1.29mi
1613 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1122	$2,200	$1.96	13d	1	1.36mi
2702 S Colonial Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1490	$1,500	$1.01	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,999 Active 766 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,999 Active 765 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,999 Active 764 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,999 Active 763 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,999 Active 762 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,999 Active 760 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,999 Active 759 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,999 Active 757 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,999 Active 756 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,999 Active 755 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,999 Active 754 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,999 Active 749 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,999 Active 748 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,999 Active 747 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,999 Active 746 DOM
16. 2024-05-14
    listed $129,999 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Country style is your style? This is the home for you! With 3 bedrooms and two baths and huge open concept. .Price includes Delivery, set, air conditioner, skirting, caliche pad and steps. Don't miss this spacious 3 bedroom 32 wide home with a gorgeous Island Kitchen, separate tub and shower in the master bath and walk-in closets! Only $129,999 until the lot model is gone!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $4,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,043
• After-tax cash flow: $5,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through updates to the interior and exterior.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · moderate wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-05-14 Listed $129,999 Zillow