7824 Lily Lake Loop · Austin, TX 78724

$105,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

?? Homes available in Austin TX Stop renting and start owning with low monthly payments ? Affordable homes ? Easy financing ? Move-in ready ? Tax refund accepted Appliances included, lots of cabinet space, spacious bedrooms, and storage shed included. Laura MH Sales

Key facts

• Appliances included
• Spacious bedrooms

Tags

• APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• LOTS OF CABINET SPACE
• SPACIOUS BEDROOMS
• STORAGE SHED INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $106k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $106k).
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Manor ISD (rural): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #729 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 180 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $733 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,995

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.72%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $41,098
• Equity at exit: $15,804

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $95,570
• Equity at exit: $9,165

Cash invested: $29,679 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78724

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$132 /mo · $1,590/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $1,007

Break-even live

Break-even rent $927

Max offer price $105,995

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,080	-5% $1,044	+0% $1,007	+5% $971	+10% $934
Rent	-10% $833	-5% $920	+0% $1,007	+5% $1,094	+10% $1,181
Rate	-1.0pp $1,061	-0.5pp $1,034	base $1,007	+0.5pp $980	+1.0pp $952

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,499
• Closing costs: $3,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6013 Florencia Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1957	$3,600	$1.84	13d	1	0.28mi
5517 Agatha Cir Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,850	$1.75	5d	1	0.30mi
5724 Signal Pt Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,725	$1.31	45d	1	0.33mi
5928 Signal Pt Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	0.36mi
5929 Alsace Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,950	$1.48	25d	1	0.41mi
5334 Sendero Hills Pkwy Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	2166	$4,299	$1.98	25d	1	0.42mi
8310 Canoga Ave Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,450	$1.24	45d	1	0.44mi
8101 Loyola Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1333	$3,049	$2.29	0d	96	0.48mi
6308 Perlita Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,895	$1.32	45d	1	0.51mi
6506 Decker Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,599	$1.37	45d	1	0.66mi
6109 Decker Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$2,059	$1.61	21d	1	0.66mi
6109 Decker Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,275	$1.50	17d	1	0.66mi
6107 Decker Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,785	$2.81	0d	61	0.71mi
5301 Decker Ln Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,752	$1.71	3d	15	0.79mi
8305 Garcreek Cir Unit A&C Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1100	$1,399	$1.27	45d	1	0.82mi
8703 Decker Lake Rd Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,747	$1.41	21d	1	0.83mi
8401 Garcreek Cir Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	4d	1	0.85mi
9025 Sun Shower Bnd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,200	$1.29	25d	1	0.89mi
8701 Decker Lake Rd Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,887	$2.02	0d	137	0.90mi
6902 Colony Park Dr Austin, TX	4.0	1.5	1500	$2,250	$1.50	25d	1	0.99mi
9212 China Rose Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,800	$1.26	45d	1	1.05mi
5813 Knoll Pines Pass Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,750	$1.15	5d	1	1.08mi
9351 Decker Lake Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,566	$1.56	0d	15	1.13mi
7000 Decker Ln Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,626	$1.70	0d	17	1.14mi
5717 Levenwood Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,895	$1.25	19d	1	1.14mi
6400 Loyola Ln Austin, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1035	$1,349	$1.30	14d	1	1.15mi
6208 Parliament Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1118	$2,000	$1.79	45d	1	1.17mi
7120 Carwill Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	16d	1	1.17mi
6200 Loyola Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,119	$1.18	5d	9	1.22mi
6809 Jaired Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,900	$1.64	45d	1	1.24mi
7320 Muffin Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,045	$1.36	16d	1	1.31mi
7009 Zachary Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,900	$1.59	19d	1	1.31mi
6117 Farm to Market 969 Unit 6140 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$2,155	$1.94	0d	1	1.33mi
6117 FM 696 Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,148	$2.22	0d	22	1.38mi
6001 Ed Bluestein Blvd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,369	$1.56	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $105,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,937
• − Property taxes: −$1,590
• − Insurance: −$530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$3,083
• Taxable income: $11,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,654
• After-tax cash flow: $9,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both New flooring — Can improve the look and feel of the home
• Both New kitchen appliances — Appliances are included, but new ones can improve functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both New flooring — Can improve the look and feel of the home ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Appliances are included, but new ones can improve functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828890
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,255
• Composite: 20.14/100
• National rank: #8641
• State rank: #729 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,103
• Household income: $77,926
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 873.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 30% Black 15% White 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 48% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.92%
• Current HPI: 284.1007
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $105,995 FSBO.com