8603 - 8609 Acapulco Way · Stockton, CA 95210

$620,000

18 bd · 9.0 ba · 3,000 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1974 10,642 sqft lot $207/sqft · 20% above area Est $516k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to Stockton's biggest opportunity! 8603-8609 Acapulco Way is a recently remodeled triplex priced at $620,000, featuring three spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath units. Situated in the heart of North Stockton, this income-producing property offers both comfort and convenience. Each unit provides practical layouts with strong rental appeal, making it ideal for investors. The location offers quick access to parks, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Don't miss your chance to own this prime investment. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Strong rental appeal
• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• RECENTLY REMODELED TRIPLEX
• INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY
• STRONG RENTAL APPEAL
• QUICK ACCESS TO PARKS
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• QUICK ACCESS TO DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $620k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $385/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $620k).
• Recommended offer: $546k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,836/mo this rent would consume 121% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $174k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $418k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $545,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.65%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $516,458
• List price: $620,000
• Delta: 20.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $26,757
• Equity at exit: $92,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $279,741
• Equity at exit: $53,606

Cash invested: $173,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95210

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 30.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,251
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,207/yr
• Insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,436
• Net cashflow: $1,540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,886

Max offer price $620,000

Occupancy floor 72%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$6,836
Total (4 units)			$6,836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $155,000
• Closing costs: $18,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $620,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $620,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $620,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $620,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $620,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $620,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $620,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $620,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $620,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $620,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $620,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $620,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $620,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $620,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-01-16
    historical $1,799
16. 2025-02-15
    listed $1,799
17. 2025-01-09
    soldstatus $417,500
18. 1999-09-30
    soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,207 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,712 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: +$505/yr (+$42/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $82,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,730
• − Property taxes: −$4,207
• − Insurance: −$3,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,563
• − Management: −$6,563
• − Depreciation: −$18,036
• Taxable income: $8,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,120
• After-tax cash flow: $16,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,549
• Household income: $67,991
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1817.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Asian 31% Two or more races 21% White 13% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.31%
• Current HPI: 349.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.09%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-98.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Rental Removed $1,799 REDFIN
• 2025-02-15 Listed for Rent $1,799 REDFIN
• 2025-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $417,500 Public Records
• 1999-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,207 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.