204 Avenue D NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1915 6,700 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prime mixed-use redevelopment opportunity in one of Winter Haven’s most strategic growth corridors. Situated directly across from Winter Haven Hospital, this property offers exceptional potential for investors, builders, and developers seeking to capitalize on a location positioned for long-term growth and redevelopment. The property is located within a Mixed-Use (MU) district that allows up to four residential dwelling units per lot and building heights of up to four stories, creating significant flexibility for residential, mixed-use, or income-producing projects. Its highly desirable location near major employment centers, medical services, retail, dining, and downtown Winter Haven

Key facts

• Near dining
• Near retail
• High-demand area

Tags

• NEAR MAJOR EMPLOYMENT CENTERS
• NEAR MEDICAL SERVICES
• NEAR RETAIL
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR DOWNTOWN WINTER HAVEN
• HIGH-DEMAND AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-3
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: No HOA association listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water available; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two-story; Faces northeast; Additional parcels included
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Building area approximately 2,662 square feet; Living area approximately 2,102 square feet; Total lot about 0.15 acres
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 134

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Concrete; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fred G. Garner Elementary School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 901 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,274/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1270% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $265k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,423 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,261
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-28,770
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,902/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $213	+0% $138	+5% $63	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $48	+0% $138	+5% $228	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $205	base $138	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $0

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 Avenue D SE Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2963	$2,600	$0.88	25d	1	0.77mi
304 Avenue P NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	2820	$2,200	$0.78	25d	1	0.84mi
760 Avenue C SW Unit 104 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	3.0	1523	$1,750	$1.15	25d	1	0.86mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	25d	1	0.97mi
251 Krenson Bay Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,250	$1.22	25d	1	1.11mi
200 Avenue K SE Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,735	$1.58	5d	45	1.12mi
1300 S Lake Howard Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1464	$2,100	$1.43	12d	20	1.15mi
904 15th St NE Unit 1520445P Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1732	$4,909	$2.83	5d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $265,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $265,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,902 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,902
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$2,856
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$685
• After-tax cash flow: $2,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+307.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,902 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.