336 N Cherokee Shores Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 106 Days on market

Built 2024 5,053 sqft lot $62/sqft · 14% below area Est $87k · 14% under $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Opportunity near Cedar Creek Lake! Discover the potential of this like-new single-wide mobile home nestled on a small lot in Cherokee Shores at Cedar Creek Lake. With the home already secured and new skirting installed, some of the exterior setup has been completed — giving you a solid head start on your next project. The interior offers a clean, well-maintained space ready for your finishing touches. Whether you're looking to create a weekend lake retreat, a rental investment, or a resale opportunity, this property presents incredible potential at an attractive entry point. Please note: utilities and sewer are NOT currently connected — there is no power or water hooked up. Property is being sold AS IS. This is a cash-only sale and is ideal for investors or buyers ready to move quickly and capitalize on the opportunity. Enjoy access to Cedar Creek Lake amenities and the peaceful lake-area lifestyle — all at an affordable price point. Don’t miss your chance to turn this property into something special!

Key facts

• Cedar creek lake
• Cherokee shores
• Lake-area lifestyle

Tags

• CEDAR CREEK LAKE
• CHEROKEE SHORES
• LAKE-AREA LIFESTYLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $75k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.13%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,200
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -11.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Running Brook Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	15mo	$118,999	$98	76
107 Pecos Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+6%)	19mo	$85,000	$66	60
127 Longhorn Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	17mo	$115,000	$108	50
100 Kiowa Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-2%)	23mo	$117,900	$99	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $28,030
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $64,437
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $674

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $754	-5% $728	+0% $702	+5% $676	+10% $650
Rent	-10% $579	-5% $641	+0% $702	+5% $764	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $740	-0.5pp $721	base $702	+0.5pp $683	+1.0pp $663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $75,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $77,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $77,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $77,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $77,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-03-02
    listed $77,000 Active 1065-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1065 chars)

    Investor Opportunity near Cedar Creek Lake! Discover the potential of this like-new single-wide mobile home nestled on a small lot in Cherokee Shores at Cedar Creek Lake. With the home already secured and new skirting installed, some of the exterior setup has been completed — giving you a solid head start on your next project. The interior offers a clean, well-maintained space ready for your finishing touches. Whether you're looking to create a weekend lake retreat, a rental investment, or a resale opportunity, this property presents incredible potential at an attractive entry point. Please note: utilities and sewer are NOT currently connected — there is no power or water hooked up. Property is being sold AS IS. This is a cash-only sale and is ideal for investors or buyers ready to move quickly and capitalize on the opportunity. Enjoy access to Cedar Creek Lake amenities and the peaceful lake-area lifestyle — all at an affordable price point. Don’t miss your chance to turn this property into something special!

17. 2024-04-26
    soldstatus
18. 2024-03-28
    soldstatus $41,530
19. 2023-09-06
    historical
20. 2023-04-26
    listed $189,990 Active
21. 2023-04-21
    soldstatus
22. 2023-02-22
    soldstatus
23. 2013-09-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $7,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,849
• After-tax cash flow: $6,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-59.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $77,000 NTREIS
• 2024-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $41,530 Public Records
• 2023-09-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-04-26 Listed $189,990 NTREIS
• 2023-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $133 · +168.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.