1217 S Selman St · Hobbs, NM 88240

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1945 ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1945
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#37 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Hobbs Municipal Schools (town): math 17% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #45 of 95 in NM (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 172 units permitted in Lea County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lea County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.79%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $9,191
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $38,553
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88240

• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,177 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $557/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $704

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1122 3 E Broadway St Unit B-103 Hobbs, NM	1.0	1.0	580	$900	$1.55	43d	1	1.09mi
1122 3 E Broadway St Unit B-302 Hobbs, NM	3.0	2.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	43d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Active
2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-25
   status Active
4. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-17
   price $125,000
6. 2026-04-17
   listed $128,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $557 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$163/yr (+$14/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$557
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,130
• − Management: −$1,130
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$766
• After-tax cash flow: $3,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hobbs Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501260
• Math proficiency: 17% —
• Reading proficiency: 31% —
• Median HH income: $52,575
• Composite: 24.53/100
• National rank: #13068
• State rank: #45 of 95 in NM

Livability — Hobbs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #11817

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hobbs, NM
• County: Lea County · 41,557 people
• City population: 41,557
• Metro: Hobbs, NM
• Population (ZIP): 41,557
• Household income: $63,270
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 968.0

Population outlook (Lea County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,268 people
• By 2030: 91,695 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 108,366 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 126,264 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 170,606 · +102.5%
• By 2100: 199,235 · +136.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 32% White 29% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 41% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lea

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.5% · R 80.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+48.5 2012: R+49.7 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -246.71%
• Current HPI: 100.9905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hobbs, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $125,000 NMMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $128,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $557 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.