4 Lleberry Path · Palm Coast, FL 32164

$314,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Land · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 9,999 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 of 7 BUILDABLE CONTIGUOUS LOTS in beautiful Quail Hollow!! No HOA or CDD! Conveniently located within 2 miles of Target, TJ Maxx, Aldis, Culvers, Starbucks, Gas Stations, I-95, Hospitals, and just minutes from our beautiful Beaches and Local Restaurants! Call TODAY!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private backyard
• 9,999 sq ft lot

Tags

• ENERGY STAR-CERTIFIED HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-676/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bunnell Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 1,080 students, 73% FRL); Buddy Taylor Middle School (math 50% / reading 45%, grade C-, #288 of 571 statewide, top 51%, 1,343 students, 63% FRL); Flagler-Palm Coast High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,523 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1380 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,938 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-58,979
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-73,259
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32164

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1380
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $854/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,431

Max offer price $304,952

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $33	+0% $-56	+5% $-145	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-150	+0% $-56	+5% $37	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $24	base $-56	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Lleberry Path Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,200	$1.18	25d	1	0.04mi
5 Llestone Path Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,200	$1.18	25d	1	0.05mi
9 Zorro Ct Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	2306	$2,350	$1.02	4d	1	0.21mi
29 Zoeller Ct Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2112	$1,800	$0.85	25d	1	0.52mi
21 Llanes Pl Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,199	$1.18	25d	1	0.81mi
13 Llovera Pl Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1995	$1,800	$0.90	25d	1	0.90mi
8 Kaiser Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1834	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	0.91mi
67 Kashmir Trl Unit 1261620P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	2594	$5,074	$1.96	4d	1	0.94mi
92 Karas Trl Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,050	$1.24	16d	1	1.04mi
48 Karas Trl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,750	$1.12	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-01-11
   status Pending
2. 2024-11-07
   listed $314,900 Active
3. 2023-09-18
   soldstatus $297,500
4. 2023-09-13
   soldstatus $42,500 Closed 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   1 of 7 BUILDABLE CONTIGUOUS LOTS in beautiful Quail Hollow!! No HOA or CDD! Conveniently located within 2 miles of Target, TJ Maxx, Aldis, Culvers, Starbucks, Gas Stations, I-95, Hospitals, and just minutes from our beautiful Beaches and Local Restaurants! Call TODAY!

5. 2023-08-21
   status Pending 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   1 of 7 BUILDABLE CONTIGUOUS LOTS in beautiful Quail Hollow!! No HOA or CDD! Conveniently located within 2 miles of Target, TJ Maxx, Aldis, Culvers, Starbucks, Gas Stations, I-95, Hospitals, and just minutes from our beautiful Beaches and Local Restaurants! Call TODAY!

6. 2023-07-17
   listed $45,000 Active 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   1 of 7 BUILDABLE CONTIGUOUS LOTS in beautiful Quail Hollow!! No HOA or CDD! Conveniently located within 2 miles of Target, TJ Maxx, Aldis, Culvers, Starbucks, Gas Stations, I-95, Hospitals, and just minutes from our beautiful Beaches and Local Restaurants! Call TODAY!

7. 2018-05-01
   soldstatus $231,000
8. 2007-04-23
   soldstatus $220,000
9. 2005-06-28
   soldstatus $65,000
10. 2005-04-05
    soldstatus $1,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $854 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,759/yr (+$147/mo · 206.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$854
• − Insurance: −$2,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,265
• − Management: −$2,265
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$6,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,658
• Household income: $76,399
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.89%
• Current HPI: 297.4942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-68.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-07 Listed $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $297,500 Public Records
• 2023-09-13 Sold (MLS) $42,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-17 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $231,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $1,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+112.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $854 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.