4447 W Mountain Laural Dr · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$400,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,811 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2023 5,176 sqft lot $221/sqft · 17% below area Est $462k · 13% under $94/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New home Ready for move-in this December. One-story Brandy floorplan with Spanish exterior elevation style. This 3-bedroom home offers a Euro-Style kitchen with built-in gas cooktop and stainless steel appliances. The home has wood-look tile floors throughout all the main living areas and the Casa Blanca granite is a beautiful centerpiece to the kitchen displaying matte-black hardware and a large single-basin sink. Come enjoy our San Tan Heights Master-Planned community that has an aquatic center and gym! Home warranty included. Ask about builders incentives.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Split floor plan
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• LARGE ISLAND
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed in a community with shared amenities
• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional
• HOA & community: Community association with quarterly fee; Association fee includes grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with direct access, garage door opener, and EV charging station
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Front and rear sprinklers with auto timers; Desert front landscaping; Gravel/stone in back; Synthetic grass in back; Block fencing; Community pool; Playground; Biking/walking path

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling heating; Ceiling fans; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Full bath in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-704 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (43.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (43.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: San Tan Heights Elementary (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #803 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 668 students, 55% FRL); San Tan Foothills High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 824 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 489 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,353 (43.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,140
• List price: $400,000
• Delta: -13.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4447 W Mountain Laural Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,735 (-4%)	1mo	$395,000	$228	92
4548 W Sweetbush Way	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,819 (+0%)	0mo	$435,000	$239	78
4164 W Suncup Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,819 (+0%)	1mo	$567,000	$312	77
4202 W Erik Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+1%)	1mo	$450,000	$246	75
34942 N Hawley Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,784 (-2%)	1mo	$452,813	$254	66
3343 W Mary Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,808 (-0%)	1mo	$482,926	$267	64
3655 W Lapis Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,672 (-8%)	0mo	$473,000	$283	62
4458 W Hunter Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-13%)	0mo	$439,000	$280	57
4199 W Erik Ln	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,049 (+13%)	1mo	$402,000	$196	53
4448 W Stickleaf Way	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,007 (+11%)	0mo	$450,000	$224	49
33915 N Blue Curl Ln	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,026 (+12%)	0mo	$435,000	$215	47
35084 N Sacramento Wash Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,595 (-12%)	0mo	$457,932	$287	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $172,905
• Equity at exit: $360,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $544,166
• Equity at exit: $777,112

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,697/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$94
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,164

Max offer price $275,693

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-477	-5% $-590	+0% $-704	+5% $-817	+10% $-930
Rent	-10% $-883	-5% $-793	+0% $-704	+5% $-614	+10% $-524
Rate	-1.0pp $-502	-0.5pp $-602	base $-704	+0.5pp $-807	+1.0pp $-913

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35155 N Thompson Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$2,320	$2.32	0d	1	0.13mi
4165 W Monika Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	45d	1	0.37mi
4504 W Stonecrop Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,075	$1.15	7d	1	0.43mi
34973 N Augite Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2614	$4,350	$1.66	0d	1	0.44mi
4565 W Hunter Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,370	$1.16	0d	1	0.44mi
35032 N Barrel Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2213	$3,900	$1.76	0d	1	0.46mi
4287 W Jeanette Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	20d	1	0.49mi
4001 W Brass Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,750	$1.13	45d	1	0.50mi
3846 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	3.0	2422	$1,949	$0.80	26d	1	0.51mi
33948 N Beeblossom Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,850	$1.37	18d	1	0.54mi
4265 W Janie St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,100	$1.14	26d	1	0.55mi
3877 W Naomi Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2010	$1,850	$0.92	7d	1	0.55mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,000	$1.09	12d	1	0.57mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	0d	1	0.57mi
3541 Dreamy Draw Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	1918	$2,700	$1.41	26d	1	0.57mi
4251 W Dayflower Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,490	$0.97	7d	1	0.62mi
3439 W Oil Well Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	45d	1	0.63mi
34113 N Alison Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,089	$0.86	4d	1	0.65mi
3569 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,550	$0.91	26d	1	0.67mi
4332 W Hannah St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	45d	1	0.67mi
3792 W Santa Cruz Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1852	$1,795	$0.97	45d	1	0.67mi
33810 N Mercedes Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,925	$1.28	45d	1	0.69mi
3854 W Carlos Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,775	$1.16	0d	1	0.70mi
4590 W Foldwing DR Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,449	$1.36	4d	1	0.76mi
33889 N Barbara Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1868	$1,975	$1.06	7d	1	0.78mi
33993 N Danja Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,450	$1.23	45d	1	0.81mi
3809 W Five Mile Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,895	$1.41	7d	1	0.82mi
3369 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2617	$2,715	$1.04	0d	1	0.97mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	16d	1	0.98mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	14d	1	0.98mi
3047 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,915	$1.32	45d	1	1.00mi
2822 W Blue River Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,395	$1.49	45d	1	1.03mi
3194 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1925	$1,908	$0.99	45d	1	1.03mi
2993 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,700	$1.32	45d	1	1.03mi
2828 Patagonia Ct Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	1.03mi
33897 N Wash View Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,980	$1.15	4d	1	1.08mi
33856 N Cherry Creek Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1928	$1,850	$0.96	45d	1	1.14mi
3560 W Mesquite Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	13d	1	1.17mi
2574 W Sawtooth Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,995	$1.50	45d	1	1.19mi
3849 W South Butte Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,846	$0.98	45d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $94 · $1,128/yr
• Likely covers: gasgym

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 648-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $400,000 Active 648-char remark
3. 2024-01-26
   soldstatus $406,370 Closed 566-char remark

   Show marketing remark (566 chars)

   New home Ready for move-in this December. One-story Brandy floorplan with Spanish exterior elevation style. This 3-bedroom home offers a Euro-Style kitchen with built-in gas cooktop and stainless steel appliances. The home has wood-look tile floors throughout all the main living areas and the Casa Blanca granite is a beautiful centerpiece to the kitchen displaying matte-black hardware and a large single-basin sink. Come enjoy our San Tan Heights Master-Planned community that has an aquatic center and gym! Home warranty included. Ask about builders incentives.

4. 2023-12-13
   status Pending 566-char remark

   Show marketing remark (566 chars)

   New home Ready for move-in this December. One-story Brandy floorplan with Spanish exterior elevation style. This 3-bedroom home offers a Euro-Style kitchen with built-in gas cooktop and stainless steel appliances. The home has wood-look tile floors throughout all the main living areas and the Casa Blanca granite is a beautiful centerpiece to the kitchen displaying matte-black hardware and a large single-basin sink. Come enjoy our San Tan Heights Master-Planned community that has an aquatic center and gym! Home warranty included. Ask about builders incentives.

5. 2023-10-21
   price $431,370 566-char remark

   Show marketing remark (566 chars)

   New home Ready for move-in this December. One-story Brandy floorplan with Spanish exterior elevation style. This 3-bedroom home offers a Euro-Style kitchen with built-in gas cooktop and stainless steel appliances. The home has wood-look tile floors throughout all the main living areas and the Casa Blanca granite is a beautiful centerpiece to the kitchen displaying matte-black hardware and a large single-basin sink. Come enjoy our San Tan Heights Master-Planned community that has an aquatic center and gym! Home warranty included. Ask about builders incentives.

6. 2023-10-09
   listed $429,370 Active 566-char remark

   Show marketing remark (566 chars)

   New home Ready for move-in this December. One-story Brandy floorplan with Spanish exterior elevation style. This 3-bedroom home offers a Euro-Style kitchen with built-in gas cooktop and stainless steel appliances. The home has wood-look tile floors throughout all the main living areas and the Casa Blanca granite is a beautiful centerpiece to the kitchen displaying matte-black hardware and a large single-basin sink. Come enjoy our San Tan Heights Master-Planned community that has an aquatic center and gym! Home warranty included. Ask about builders incentives.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,640 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$943/yr (+$79/mo · 55.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$1,697
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − HOA: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$15,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) $395,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $400,000 ARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Sold (MLS) $406,370 ARMLS
• 2023-12-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-10-21 Price Changed $431,370 ARMLS
• 2023-10-09 Listed $429,370 ARMLS

Property tax history

+122.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,697 · +396.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.