5431 Bayleaf Dr · Crestview, FL 32539

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 966 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot $186/sqft · 19% below area Est $222k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An unbeatable opportunity to live you're best brand new home life!! A stunning home with flowing luxury vinyl plank (LVP) floors to handle real life with ease, while the kitchen with quartz countertops, under mount sinks, and stainless steel appliances. Where mornings start and evenings wind down, This home gives you the perfect space to relax, host, or settle in With NO HOA, you have freedom to truly make it yours!! The seller will contribute $3,000 in closing cost or use it any way with Item Price Upgrades available: Blinds $1,000 Washer/Dryer $1,800 Fridge $2,000 Irrigation $4,500 Fence $6,000 Act now incentives may change! Fiber internet available throughout subdivision $795 to connect.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($248/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Crestview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,858 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northwood Elementary School (math 63% / reading 56%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 828 students, 63% FRL); Crestview High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #167 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,315 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 688 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $159,994 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,778
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -14.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5433 Bayleaf Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	966 (0%)	2mo	$179,900	$186	96
5439 Bayleaf Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0	966 (0%)	9mo	$199,900	$207	92
5435 Bayleaf Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	966 (0%)	5mo	$189,900	$197	92
5356 Highview Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	971 (+0%)	2mo	$213,000	$219	91
5441 Bayleaf Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	966 (0%)	10mo	$189,900	$197	91
5369 Highview Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	971 (+0%)	9mo	$219,900	$226	88
5360 Highview Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	971 (+0%)	11mo	$222,600	$229	86
5445 Bayleaf Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	966 (0%)	15mo	$190,000	$197	86
5375 Highview Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	971 (+0%)	12mo	$219,900	$226	85
5443 Bayleaf Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	966 (0%)	15mo	$199,900	$207	84
5377 Highview Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	971 (+0%)	16mo	$221,900	$229	82
5371 Highview Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	971 (+0%)	18mo	$219,900	$226	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-32,315
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-43,801
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $199,900 ($206/sqft)
• Median days on market: 23 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +11.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32539

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 688
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $83	+0% $21	+5% $-41	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-42	+0% $21	+5% $84	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $66	base $21	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5654 Falcon Way Crestview, FL	2.0	1.0	966	$1,560	$1.61	93d	1	0.80mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in the Holley Grove subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric servicePrivate well waterSeptic tank
• Home design: Patio home styleSingle-storyEntry level: First floor
• Construction: Shake roofBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Open patioPorch

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $179,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $189,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $189,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $189,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $189,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $189,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $189,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $189,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $189,900 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $189,900 Active 42 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $189,900 Active 41 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 40 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $189,900 Active 39 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $189,900 Active 38 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $189,900 Active 37 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 36 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 35 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 34 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $189,900 Active 33 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 32 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 31 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 30 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 29 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 28 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 27 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $189,900 Active 26 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $189,900 Active 25 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $189,900 Active 24 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 23 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $189,900 Active 21 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $189,900 Active 19 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $189,900 Active 18 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 15 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $189,900 Active 14 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $189,900 Active 13 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $189,900 Active 12 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $189,900 Active 10 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 9 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $189,900 Active 7 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$668
• After-tax cash flow: $916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a perfect blend of modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and appeals to buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Northwood Elementary School B- FL #690/2,144 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Davidson Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Crestview High School D+ FL #167/667 Nat'l #5,269/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Crestview

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 235,133 people
• City population: 58,889
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,290
• Household income: $74,369
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.52%
• Current HPI: 261.1557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.12%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in the Holley Grove subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric servicePrivate well waterSeptic tank
• Home design: Patio home styleSingle-storyEntry level: First floor
• Construction: Shake roofBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Open patioPorch

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $189,900 ECAR