711 River Oaks Cir · New Smyrna Beach, FL 32169

$280,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1997 3,381 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Beachside 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1 Car Garage concrete block half-duplex home a couple blocks to the ocean. This open floor plan home has tile floors throughout and ceiling fans in all rooms. There is an eat-in kitchen as well as a dining room/living room, bathrooms are en-suite. Covered back patio. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood but very close to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Located in the Short Term Rental District this property would be perfect as an investment opportunity, vacation or primary residence.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1997
• Listed 44 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 539 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,285 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-46,729
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-25,801
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32169

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 539
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,642/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $260,845

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3800 Saxon Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	838	$2,100	$2.51	23d	1	0.09mi
3800 Saxon Dr Unit 1545928P New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	893	$2,185	$2.45	14d	1	0.09mi
3801 S Atlantic Ave Unit 107 New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$6,000	$6.58	23d	1	0.33mi
3307 Saxon Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	854	$1,975	$2.31	23d	1	0.38mi
834 E 25th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1007	$2,600	$2.58	14d	1	0.39mi
4175 S Atlantic Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	950	$2,900	$3.05	23d	1	0.50mi
4175 S Atlantic Ave #3160 New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	788	$3,000	$3.81	23d	1	0.50mi
906 11th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,500	$3.50	23d	1	1.28mi
814 E 10th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$2,600	$2.68	23d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-17
   price $280,000 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Charming Beachside 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1 Car Garage, concrete block half-duplex home a couple of blocks to the beach. This open floor plan home has tile floors throughout and ceiling fans in all rooms. There is an eat-in kitchen as well as a dining room/living room, bathrooms are en-suite. Covered back patio. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood but very close to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Located in the Short Term Rental District this property would be perfect as an investment opportunity, vacation or primary residence.

2. 2026-05-17
   price $280,000 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Charming Beachside 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1 Car Garage, concrete block half-duplex home a couple of blocks to the beach. This open floor plan home has tile floors throughout and ceiling fans in all rooms. There is an eat-in kitchen as well as a dining room/living room, bathrooms are en-suite. Covered back patio. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood but very close to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Located in the Short Term Rental District this property would be perfect as an investment opportunity, vacation or primary residence.

3. 2026-04-10
   listed $300,000 Active 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Charming Beachside 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1 Car Garage, concrete block half-duplex home a couple of blocks to the beach. This open floor plan home has tile floors throughout and ceiling fans in all rooms. There is an eat-in kitchen as well as a dining room/living room, bathrooms are en-suite. Covered back patio. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood but very close to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Located in the Short Term Rental District this property would be perfect as an investment opportunity, vacation or primary residence.

4. 2026-04-10
   listed $300,000 Active 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Charming Beachside 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1 Car Garage, concrete block half-duplex home a couple of blocks to the beach. This open floor plan home has tile floors throughout and ceiling fans in all rooms. There is an eat-in kitchen as well as a dining room/living room, bathrooms are en-suite. Covered back patio. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood but very close to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Located in the Short Term Rental District this property would be perfect as an investment opportunity, vacation or primary residence.

5. 2026-03-03
   soldstatus $240,100
6. 2026-02-25
   historical
7. 2026-02-25
   historical
8. 2026-01-26
   price $299,999
9. 2026-01-26
   price $299,999
10. 2026-01-20
    price $302,500
11. 2026-01-20
    price $302,500
12. 2026-01-07
    price $310,000
13. 2026-01-07
    price $310,000
14. 2025-10-20
    listed $320,000 Active
15. 2025-10-20
    listed $320,000 Active
16. 2023-04-24
    soldstatus $275,000
17. 2017-05-19
    soldstatus $315,000
18. 1998-12-23
    soldstatus $80,000
19. 1998-12-23
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 1998-12-21
    listed $84,500
21. 1998-12-21
    listed $84,500
22. 1997-01-09
    soldstatus $44,167

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,642 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,642 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,642
• − Insurance: −$2,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,345
• − Management: −$2,345
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — New Smyrna Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #8577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Smyrna Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 42,039
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,192
• Household income: $110,968
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 145.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -297.06%
• Current HPI: 345.3555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.17%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+534.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $280,000 Daytona MLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $300,000 Daytona MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $240,100 Public Records
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — Daytona MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $299,999 Daytona MLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $299,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $302,500 Daytona MLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $302,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $310,000 Daytona MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listed $320,000 Daytona MLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-23 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NSBMLS
• 1998-12-23 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-21 Listed $84,500 NSBMLS
• 1998-12-21 Listed $84,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $44,167 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,642 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.