2312 Umbel St · Mission, TX 78574

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1997 4,142 sqft lot Est $191k · 8% under $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Established, reputable 55+ community. Sitting on a nice corner lot, this great 2/2/1 home features a kitchen full of cabinets, beautiful wood laminate floors, large bedrooms and for extra living space, a relaxing enclosed patio. The cute and private backyard is the perfect retreat and also includes a storage shed.

Key facts

• Front patio deck
• Open concept living
• Plantation shutters

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FRONT PATIO DECK
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• SOLAR SCREENS
• TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing provided by Grt Realty
• HOA & community: La Hacienda HOA (mandatory) with annual fee of $332; POA transfer fee applies; Community pool; Curbs in community; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); 1 total covered parking space; Garage faces front
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; City sewer; Cable available; Electric service
• Home design: Brick construction; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior; Slab foundation; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Gutters / spouting; Mature trees; Sprinkler system; Corner lot; Curb and gutters; Paved road access; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric smooth-top stove / range
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countertops; Ceiling fans; Decorative / high ceilings; Double-pane windows; Solar screens; Plantation shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer / dryer connections; Washer / dryer connection located in the garage; Electric water heater in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-569/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John H Shary El (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Sharyland North J H (math 46% / reading 42%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 806 students, 74% FRL); Sharyland H S (math 36% / reading 58%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 1,546 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 477 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,620 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2312 Yarrow St	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (-1%)	1mo	$195,000	$150	86
2301 Wisteria Ave	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-1%)	10mo	$180,000	$138	82
1908 E 23rd St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (-4%)	6mo	$169,000	$134	78
2304 Garden View Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+4%)	11mo	$215,000	$158	77
2303 Viola St	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,172 (-11%)	5mo	$170,000	$145	71
1905 E 23rd Pl	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (-11%)	2mo	$185,000	$159	70
2405 Sundrop Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,147 (-13%)	11mo	$197,350	$172	62
2215 Lilly Cv	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	5mo	$229,500	$159	61
1709 Jonquil Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+13%)	1mo	$195,000	$131	57
1811 Crown Pointe Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+9%)	10mo	$199,000	$138	51
2207 E 21st St E	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,459 (+11%)	3mo	$170,000	$117	50
1810 Lauren Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+14%)	3mo	$203,500	$135	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-31,235
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-30,504
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 477
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,800/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $166,620

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $2	+0% $-47	+5% $-97	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-115	+0% $-47	+5% $20	+10% $88
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-3	base $-47	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2514 Yarrow St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,700	$1.61	25d	1	0.29mi
1901 N Glasscock Rd Lot 61 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$526	$0.55	21d	1	0.29mi
1901 N Glasscock Rd Unit 17-A Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$950	$1.03	45d	1	0.29mi
2311 Dora Jeanne Dr Unit A Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$950	$0.97	45d	1	0.32mi
1500 E 24th St Unit B-6 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1010	$975	$0.97	45d	1	0.39mi
1801 Crown Pointe Blvd Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,650	$1.03	16d	1	0.54mi
2609 May Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	45d	1	0.61mi
2201 E 21st St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1529	$1,850	$1.21	16d	1	0.61mi
2203 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	0.69mi
2200 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$1,950	$1.07	45d	1	0.70mi
2614 E Solar Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1492	$3,000	$2.01	25d	1	0.76mi
2505 E Solar Dr Mission, TX	3.0	3.5	1550	$2,300	$1.48	45d	1	0.81mi
2401 E 27th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,850	$1.07	25d	1	0.95mi
1827 Highland Park Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	45d	1	1.13mi
1006 Fairway Dr Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,100	$1.03	45d	1	1.13mi
2705 Mimosa St #8 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,480	$1.19	45d	1	1.13mi
1801 Highland Park Ave Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,500	$1.28	21d	1	1.15mi
2715 Mimosa St #12 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,350	$0.96	16d	1	1.16mi
800 Ragland Rd Unit 9 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	913	$1,150	$1.26	45d	1	1.20mi
800 Ragland Rd Unit 10 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,325	$1.26	45d	1	1.20mi
1707 Highland Park Ave Unit 4-B Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1336	$1,200	$0.90	16d	1	1.21mi
2815 Mimosa St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1154	$1,088	$0.94	16d	1	1.21mi
2004 Angus St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$975	$0.85	45d	1	1.23mi
3108 Highland Park Ave Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	21d	1	1.24mi
720 Ragland Rd #8 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,300	$1.23	25d	1	1.25mi
606 San Antonio Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$850	$0.94	25d	1	1.29mi
606 San Antonio Ave Unit 606-4 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	45d	1	1.30mi
606 San Antonio Ave Unit 4 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$895	$0.99	23d	1	1.30mi
600 San Antonio Ave Unit 7 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$880	$0.98	45d	1	1.32mi
1511 Evergreen Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,300	$1.01	45d	1	1.43mi
607 Alameda Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	46d	1	1.45mi
2225 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1839	$2,100	$1.14	23d	1	1.46mi
2313 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,800 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,800 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,800
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$821
• After-tax cash flow: $252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sharyland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839930
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,792
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5214
• State rank: #406 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+96.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $175,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-06-05 Price Changed $82,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2014-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-29 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2014-05-30 Delisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2014-05-30 Price Changed $89,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2013-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-26 Listed $89,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2003-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,800 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.