1138 Clay · Canton, TX 75103

$149,700

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1972 0.41 ac lot Est $176k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable home in established neighborhood. Convenient to schools and shopping.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered space); Driveway parking; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Municipal utility district: No; All-weather road utility noted
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry at main level
• Construction: Built in 1972; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Less than half-acre lot (approximately 0.41 acre); All-weather road access; Directions: Turn on Big Rock from 243, left on Little Rock, right on Clay

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; High-speed internet available; Two total rooms (living and dining areas)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.0% in Canton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#239 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Canton ISD (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #151 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Canton El (571 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 40% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,700

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.33%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,352
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1180 Clay St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	2mo	$150,000	$150	80
1200/1190 Big Rock St	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,036 (-2%)	0mo	$199,900	$193	76
1135 Big Rock St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-11%)	6mo	$159,000	$168	68
520 W Elm St	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-14%)	6mo	$89,900	$99	60
908 W State Highway 243	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,148 (+9%)	3mo	$189,900	$165	49
558 E Elm St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,034 (-2%)	21mo	$139,000	$134	47
512 W College St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	22mo	$170,000	$152	45
711 Water Crest Cir	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (+12%)	9mo	$219,900	$186	41
1470 Forrest Dr	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,130 (+7%)	18mo	$195,000	$173	33
856 Avenue A	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,197 (+13%)	16mo	$199,900	$167	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,164
• Equity at exit: $22,321

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,349
• Equity at exit: $12,943

Cash invested: $41,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75103

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$785
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,146/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $149,700

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,425
• Closing costs: $4,491
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1107 Tower St Canton, TX	3.0	1.5	1210	$1,525	$1.26	18d	1	0.07mi
1361 Shady Ln Canton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,600	$1.27	1d	1	0.19mi
405 Beard St Canton, TX	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,675	$1.46	7d	1	0.28mi
900 W State Highway 243 Canton, TX	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,750	$1.61	1d	1	0.61mi
908 Texas 243 Canton, TX	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,750	$1.52	1d	1	0.63mi
351 Mill Creek Rd Canton, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,200	$1.37	43d	1	0.63mi
351 Mill Creek Rd Canton, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,200	$1.37	1d	1	0.63mi
680 Cherry Creek Ln Canton, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,700	$1.37	1d	1	0.82mi
341 Dry Creek Ln Canton, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,900	$1.35	24d	1	1.24mi
519 Burnett Trl Canton, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,900	$1.47	22d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,700 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,700 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,700 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,700 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,700 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 80-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,700 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,146 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,740 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$594/yr (+$49/mo · 27.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,386
• − Property taxes: −$2,146
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$4,355
• Taxable income: $279
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$67
• After-tax cash flow: $2,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812750
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,385
• Composite: 44.08/100
• National rank: #2877
• State rank: #151 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #5787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,222

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.07%
• Current HPI: 227.6156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+52.8% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $149,700 GTAR
• 2026-06-09 Listed $149,700 NTREIS
• 2025-02-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $145,500 NTREIS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $145,500 GTAR
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $146,500 NTREIS
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $146,500 GTAR
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $147,000 GTAR
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed $147,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-12 Relisted — GTAR
• 2024-11-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-11-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-11-01 Delisted — GTAR
• 2024-11-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $147,500 NTREIS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $147,500 GTAR
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $148,500 NTREIS
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $148,500 GTAR
• 2024-08-13 Price Changed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-13 Price Changed $149,000 GTAR
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $149,500 NTREIS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $149,500 GTAR
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $153,500 NTREIS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $153,500 GTAR
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $154,500 GTAR
• 2024-06-29 Price Changed $154,500 NTREIS
• 2024-06-24 Price Changed $156,500 GTAR
• 2024-06-24 Price Changed $156,500 NTREIS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $159,000 GTAR
• 2024-05-31 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2021-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-01-16 Listed $98,000 NTREIS
• 2009-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,146 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.