318 Mill Creek Dr · Abilene, TX 79602

$384,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2015 8,625 sqft lot Est $381k · at est. $17/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is a must see! It is so beautiful & carefully maintained. The home is located in Southlake Estates, close to new schools & ball fields. It offers an open floor plan, neutral colors, 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, security system, gutters, sprinkler system & privacy fence. There is also a shed in back yard for garden tools & garage floor has been epoxied. Schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all measurement's.

Key facts

• 12x10 shed
• Privacy fence
• Granite countertops

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• EXTENDED BACK PATIO
• PRIVACY FENCE
• 12X10 SHED
• EPOXY-FINISHED FLOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Southlake Estates; Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Lot under 0.5 acre
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Southlake HOA); HOA management and management fees included; Annual association fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with front-facing garage; Driveway; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Preowned (built in 2015); Smart home features present
• Construction: Brick and wood construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Back yard wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-148/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $354k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie East El (math 58% / reading 58%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 789 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,541/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 338% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,074 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 Whiterock Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,987 (+1%)	1mo	$384,900	$194	94
365 Eagle Mountain Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,970 (-0%)	0mo	$365,000	$185	92
250 Southlake Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,006 (+2%)	0mo	$380,000	$189	91
7201 Raven Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,034 (+3%)	1mo	$425,000	$209	90
334 Mill Creek Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,095 (+6%)	2mo	$384,900	$184	87
301 Blue Lake Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,076 (+5%)	1mo	$390,000	$188	79
350 Garth Ridge Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,893 (-4%)	2mo	$375,000	$198	75
7321 Wildflower Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,737 (-12%)	1mo	$335,000	$193	67
7450 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,741 (-12%)	2mo	$310,000	$178	51
7633 Wildflower Way	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-11%)	1mo	$348,000	$197	50
7621 Wildflower Way	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-11%)	2mo	$352,000	$200	49
149 Spring Park Way	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (-13%)	1mo	$289,000	$169	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-44,317
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $46,149
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$613 /mo · $7,358/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,556

Max offer price $382,813

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
349 Whiterock Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1809	$6,000	$3.32	17d	1	0.12mi
250 Southlake Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$3,400	$1.69	3d	1	0.15mi
7309 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$3,195	$2.02	24d	1	0.20mi
331 Sophia Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$3,195	$1.96	4d	1	0.23mi
7319 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$4,000	$2.66	44d	1	0.24mi
7326 Mountain View Rd Unit 7328 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	11d	1	0.27mi
273 Martis Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$3,200	$1.93	13d	1	0.27mi
7328 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	11d	1	0.28mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	7d	1	0.43mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	3d	1	0.43mi
7709 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,200	$2.13	44d	1	0.75mi
7717 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,375	$2.25	11d	1	0.75mi
342 Pilgrim Rd Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	2613	$3,500	$1.34	4d	1	0.76mi
7627 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$8,900	$5.57	13d	1	0.78mi
7625 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	1800	$3,300	$1.83	4d	1	0.81mi
7646 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	21d	1	0.81mi
7650 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	13d	1	0.83mi
7949 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.85mi
385 Kristi Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	3d	1	0.92mi
385 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	3d	1	0.94mi
8001 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.96mi
8009 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.96mi
409 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,895	$2.05	5d	1	1.00mi
405 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,895	$2.01	7d	1	1.00mi
801 Big Water Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	13d	1	1.16mi
609 Marlin Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,250	$1.69	19d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Option Contract
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $384,999 Active
3. 2020-04-24
   soldstatus
4. 2020-04-23
   soldstatus Sold 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   This home is a must see! It is so beautiful & carefully maintained. The home is located in Southlake Estates, close to new schools & ball fields. It offers an open floor plan, neutral colors, 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, security system, gutters, sprinkler system & privacy fence. There is also a shed in back yard for garden tools & garage floor has been epoxied. Schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all measurement's.

5. 2020-03-18
   status Pending 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   This home is a must see! It is so beautiful & carefully maintained. The home is located in Southlake Estates, close to new schools & ball fields. It offers an open floor plan, neutral colors, 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, security system, gutters, sprinkler system & privacy fence. There is also a shed in back yard for garden tools & garage floor has been epoxied. Schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all measurement's.

6. 2020-03-04
   historical Active Option Contract 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   This home is a must see! It is so beautiful & carefully maintained. The home is located in Southlake Estates, close to new schools & ball fields. It offers an open floor plan, neutral colors, 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, security system, gutters, sprinkler system & privacy fence. There is also a shed in back yard for garden tools & garage floor has been epoxied. Schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all measurement's.

7. 2020-03-02
   listed $260,000 Active 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   This home is a must see! It is so beautiful & carefully maintained. The home is located in Southlake Estates, close to new schools & ball fields. It offers an open floor plan, neutral colors, 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, security system, gutters, sprinkler system & privacy fence. There is also a shed in back yard for garden tools & garage floor has been epoxied. Schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all measurement's.

8. 2015-12-31
   soldstatus Sold 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Texas Pride Custom Homes does it again! This beautiful home has an open floorplan with 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. Granite countertops, SS Appliances, wood flooring, tile & carpet in the bedrooms. Master bath will have a jetted tub, walk-in shower & large walk in closet. This home also comes with 6' privacy fence, sprinklers system, SOD and landscaping. Buyer to verify all measurements.

9. 2015-11-22
   status Pending 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Texas Pride Custom Homes does it again! This beautiful home has an open floorplan with 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. Granite countertops, SS Appliances, wood flooring, tile & carpet in the bedrooms. Master bath will have a jetted tub, walk-in shower & large walk in closet. This home also comes with 6' privacy fence, sprinklers system, SOD and landscaping. Buyer to verify all measurements.

10. 2015-09-05
    listed $235,500 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Texas Pride Custom Homes does it again! This beautiful home has an open floorplan with 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. Granite countertops, SS Appliances, wood flooring, tile & carpet in the bedrooms. Master bath will have a jetted tub, walk-in shower & large walk in closet. This home also comes with 6' privacy fence, sprinklers system, SOD and landscaping. Buyer to verify all measurements.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,358 · $613/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,358 · $613/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$7,358
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,399
• − Management: −$3,399
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$6,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,575
• After-tax cash flow: $1,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+63.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $384,999 NTREIS
• 2020-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-03-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-03-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-03-02 Listed $260,000 NTREIS
• 2015-12-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-11-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-09-05 Listed $235,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+77.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,358 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.