5 Oak Dr · Noyack, NY 11963

$1,495,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1991 8,712 sqft lot $2307/sqft · 22% above area Est $1227k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Storybook Living in Sag Harbor: A Turnkey Coastal Retreat Experience the epitome of Sag Harbor living in this meticulously renovated coastal cottage, where "storybook" charm meets high-end contemporary function. Freshly reimagined for the modern lifestyle, this residence boasts brand-new siding, lush professional landscaping, and a crisp Belgian stone drive that sets a sophisticated tone before you even step through the front door. Designed for effortless, single-level living, the interior is a masterclass in clean, coastal aesthetics. The open-concept great room is bathed in natural light from three sides, highlighting the rich hardwood floors and designer recessed lighting. At the heart of the home, the all-new designer kitchen is a chef's dream, featuring: Premium quartzite countertops & custom tile backsplash. Professional-grade, GE Cafe appliances. A dedicated dining area with seamless indoor-outdoor flow. Step through sliding glass doors to a backyard sanctuary designed for the ultimate Hamptons summer. The .20-acre property is a sun-drenched haven, fully fenced and framed by mature privacy hedges. Enjoy the heated pool & sun-drenched patio: Perfect for lounging or al fresco dinner parties. There is a new outdoor shower and the beautiful lush lawn which offers ample space for summer games and entertaining. Located in the coveted town of Sag Harbor, this home offers easy access to bay beaches and world-class sunsets at nearby Foster Memorial Beach. You are just moments away from the elevated dining, luxury boutiques, and vibrant culture of Sag Harbor Village. While this home is perfectly curated for immediate enjoyment, it offers incredible versatility. Live beautifully within the current sophisticated floorplan or easily expand for additional rooms and equity. Turnkey, renovated, and ready for Summer-this is the Sag Harbor retreat you've been waiting for.

Key facts

• Belgian stone drive
• Brand-new siding
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• BRAND-NEW SIDING
• LUSH PROFESSIONAL LANDSCAPING
• BELGIAN STONE DRIVE
• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• DESIGNER RECESSED LIGHTING
• ALL-NEW DESIGNER KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($71k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.50M).
• Recommended offer: $1.45M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,547/mo this rent would consume 174% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $148k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $137k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $419k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$237k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.45M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.18M; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,450,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.84%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,227,330
• List price: $1,495,000
• Delta: 21.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Wickatuck Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	710 (+10%)	6mo	$1,240,000	$1,746	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $1,203,258
• Equity at exit: $1,259,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.30×
• Total profit: $3,472,681
• Equity at exit: $2,626,946

Cash invested: $418,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,840
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,773/yr
• Insurance: −$623
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,895
• Net cashflow: $5,875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,111

Max offer price $1,495,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,721	-5% $6,298	+0% $5,875	+5% $5,452	+10% $5,029
Rent	-10% $4,410	-5% $5,142	+0% $5,875	+5% $6,608	+10% $7,340
Rate	-1.0pp $6,628	-0.5pp $6,255	base $5,875	+0.5pp $5,488	+1.0pp $5,094

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $373,750
• Closing costs: $44,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 1911-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1911 chars)

   Storybook Living in Sag Harbor: A Turnkey Coastal Retreat Experience the epitome of Sag Harbor living in this meticulously renovated coastal cottage, where "storybook" charm meets high-end contemporary function. Freshly reimagined for the modern lifestyle, this residence boasts brand-new siding, lush professional landscaping, and a crisp Belgian stone drive that sets a sophisticated tone before you even step through the front door. Designed for effortless, single-level living, the interior is a masterclass in clean, coastal aesthetics. The open-concept great room is bathed in natural light from three sides, highlighting the rich hardwood floors and designer recessed lighting. At the heart of the home, the all-new designer kitchen is a chef's dream, featuring: Premium quartzite countertops & custom tile backsplash. Professional-grade, GE Cafe appliances. A dedicated dining area with seamless indoor-outdoor flow. Step through sliding glass doors to a backyard sanctuary designed for the ultimate Hamptons summer. The .20-acre property is a sun-drenched haven, fully fenced and framed by mature privacy hedges. Enjoy the heated pool & sun-drenched patio: Perfect for lounging or al fresco dinner parties. There is a new outdoor shower and the beautiful lush lawn which offers ample space for summer games and entertaining. Located in the coveted town of Sag Harbor, this home offers easy access to bay beaches and world-class sunsets at nearby Foster Memorial Beach. You are just moments away from the elevated dining, luxury boutiques, and vibrant culture of Sag Harbor Village. While this home is perfectly curated for immediate enjoyment, it offers incredible versatility. Live beautifully within the current sophisticated floorplan or easily expand for additional rooms and equity. Turnkey, renovated, and ready for Summer-this is the Sag Harbor retreat you've been waiting for.

2. 2026-03-29
   listed $1,495,000 Active 1911-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1911 chars)

   Storybook Living in Sag Harbor: A Turnkey Coastal Retreat Experience the epitome of Sag Harbor living in this meticulously renovated coastal cottage, where "storybook" charm meets high-end contemporary function. Freshly reimagined for the modern lifestyle, this residence boasts brand-new siding, lush professional landscaping, and a crisp Belgian stone drive that sets a sophisticated tone before you even step through the front door. Designed for effortless, single-level living, the interior is a masterclass in clean, coastal aesthetics. The open-concept great room is bathed in natural light from three sides, highlighting the rich hardwood floors and designer recessed lighting. At the heart of the home, the all-new designer kitchen is a chef's dream, featuring: Premium quartzite countertops & custom tile backsplash. Professional-grade, GE Cafe appliances. A dedicated dining area with seamless indoor-outdoor flow. Step through sliding glass doors to a backyard sanctuary designed for the ultimate Hamptons summer. The .20-acre property is a sun-drenched haven, fully fenced and framed by mature privacy hedges. Enjoy the heated pool & sun-drenched patio: Perfect for lounging or al fresco dinner parties. There is a new outdoor shower and the beautiful lush lawn which offers ample space for summer games and entertaining. Located in the coveted town of Sag Harbor, this home offers easy access to bay beaches and world-class sunsets at nearby Foster Memorial Beach. You are just moments away from the elevated dining, luxury boutiques, and vibrant culture of Sag Harbor Village. While this home is perfectly curated for immediate enjoyment, it offers incredible versatility. Live beautifully within the current sophisticated floorplan or easily expand for additional rooms and equity. Turnkey, renovated, and ready for Summer-this is the Sag Harbor retreat you've been waiting for.

3. 2024-10-16
   soldstatus $1,175,000
4. 2024-08-30
   soldstatus $1,175,000 Closed
5. 2024-08-01
   status Pending
6. 2024-07-14
   price $1,295,000
7. 2024-07-04
   listed $1,395,000 Active
8. 2014-10-02
   soldstatus $450,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,773 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,519 · $1,210/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,746/yr (+$896/mo · 284.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $222,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$83,743
• − Property taxes: −$3,773
• − Insurance: −$7,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,805
• − Management: −$17,805
• − Depreciation: −$43,491
• Taxable income: $48,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,634
• After-tax cash flow: $58,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+232.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Listed $1,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,175,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-30 Sold (MLS) $1,175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-14 Price Changed $1,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-04 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,773 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.