26 Woodland Trl · Carmel, NY 10512

$295,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,302 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1976 436 sqft lot Est $405k · 27% under $274/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks. Hello. .. ? This is a very nice corner unit townhome with a private side entrance and a lovely patio area. Cosmetics/aesthetics are the answers here. Currently there is NO water, heat or electric on. Buyers agents are encouraged to verify 2025 taxes, HOA fees, and any other fee related details. This unit will be sold strictly as is, however, will be totally cleaned out.

Key facts

• Lovely patio area
• Corner unit
• $274 HOA

Tags

• CORNER UNIT
• PRIVATE SIDE ENTRANCE
• LOVELY PATIO AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.9% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kent Elementary School (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 394 students, 29% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 17% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $295k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,353 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $404,922
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2803 Kings Way	0.63mi	2/1.5	1,281 (-2%)	18mo	$385,000	$301	53
1306 Kings Way	0.72mi	2/1.5	1,281 (-2%)	20mo	$385,000	$301	47
1308 Kings Way	0.72mi	2/1.5	1,281 (-2%)	21mo	$400,000	$312	46
1504 Kings Way	0.70mi	2/2.5	1,220 (-6%)	18mo	$379,000	$311	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-53,902
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,059
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10512

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$452 /mo · $5,423/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$274
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,033

Max offer price $277,353

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39 Fowler Ave Unit 2 Carmel Hamlet, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	11d	1	0.24mi
104 Sparrow Ridge Rd Unit 20C Carmel, NY	2.0	2.5	1585	$3,600	$2.27	43d	1	1.03mi
158 Dykeman Rd Carmel, NY	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,000	$2.48	43d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $274 · $3,288/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2024-12-30
   listed $295,000 Active
3. 1988-06-17
   soldstatus $145,000
4. 1985-12-31
   soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,423 · $452/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,423 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$5,423
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,790
• − Management: −$2,790
• − HOA: −$3,288
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$5,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,439
• After-tax cash flow: $241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carmel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmel, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,238

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.73%
• Current HPI: 258.8452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+181.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-30 Listed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 1985-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,423 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.