20 Dune Dr · Forked River, NJ 08721

$995,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1994 6,534 sqft lot Est $818k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

It's rare to a find such a stunning waterfront home that offers a peaceful and private setting blended with 80+ feet on the water and 3,000+ square foot of living space tucked away in a quiet neighborhood in Bayville that is one of the areas best kept secrets. This custom colonial is just a short ride through Cedar Creek and out to the open bay and offers a bright and open layout on the first floor that takes full advantage of the views and features a stylish and modern eat-in kitchen with a sliding door out to the back deck, formal dining room, cozy living area, den, powder room and large laundry/mud room. The second level consists of 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, including the impressive a

Key facts

• Custom colonial
• 80 feet on the water
• Waterfront home

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• 80 FEET ON THE WATER
• CUSTOM COLONIAL
• BRIGHT AND OPEN LAYOUT
• MODERN EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Custom model; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Custom construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Waterfront property with creek and lagoon

Interior

• Kitchen: Wall oven, Counter top range, Dishwasher, Microwave, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (several located on the second floor)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (total 2.5)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating with 2-zone heat; Central air conditioning with 2-zone AC
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Wall Oven, Counter Top Range, Dishwasher, Microwave, Refrigerator; Wood flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($37k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $995k).
• Recommended offer: $965k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $279k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($965k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $545k; list at $995k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $965,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.20%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $817,872
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Harbor Inn Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,930 (-5%)	18mo	$610,000	$208	59
148 Colleran Pl	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,816 (-9%)	14mo	$620,000	$220	44
185 Harbor Inn Rd	0.73mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,876 (-7%)	7mo	$760,000	$264	41
507 Laurel Blvd	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,812 (-9%)	13mo	$1,575,000	$560	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $36,659
• Equity at exit: $148,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $287,736
• Equity at exit: $86,029

Cash invested: $278,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08721

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax from tax record: −$1,083 /mo · $12,997/yr
• Insurance: −$415
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,723
• Net cashflow: $3,101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,041

Max offer price $995,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,750
• Closing costs: $29,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Bunnell St Lanoka Harbor, NJ	5.0	3.5	3012	$20,000	$6.64	15d	1	0.92mi
605 Farrelly Ave Bayville, NJ	5.0	3.0	2274	$3,500	$1.54	43d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-11
   listed $995,000 Active
2. 2020-04-27
   soldstatus $545,000
3. 2020-04-22
   soldstatus $545,000 Sold
4. 2020-03-03
   status Pending
5. 2020-02-27
   listed $545,000 Active
6. 2020-02-13
   historical
7. 2019-09-14
   price $589,900
8. 2019-08-09
   listed $624,900 Active
9. 2014-04-29
   soldstatus $465,000
10. 2014-04-23
    soldstatus $465,000
11. 2014-04-23
    soldstatus $465,000
12. 2014-01-13
    listed $499,900
13. 2014-01-13
    listed $499,900
14. 1992-02-13
    soldstatus $80,000
15. 1991-07-23
    soldstatus $86,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,997 · $1,083/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,886 · $1,574/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,889/yr (+$491/mo · 45.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $155,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,735
• − Property taxes: −$12,997
• − Insurance: −$10,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,448
• − Management: −$12,448
• − Depreciation: −$28,945
• Taxable income: $22,931
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,503
• After-tax cash flow: $31,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,464

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -320.09%
• Current HPI: 346.8393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1050.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $995,000 MOMLS
• 2020-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $545,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-22 Sold (MLS) $545,000 MOMLS
• 2020-03-03 Pending — MOMLS
• 2020-02-27 Listed $545,000 MOMLS
• 2020-02-13 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2019-09-14 Price Changed $589,900 MOMLS
• 2019-08-09 Listed $624,900 MOMLS
• 2014-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $465,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-23 Sold (MLS) $465,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-23 Sold (MLS) $465,000 MOMLS
• 2014-01-13 Listed $499,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-13 Listed $499,900 MOMLS
• 1992-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1991-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $86,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,997 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.